Morning wrap (12.06.2025)

Treasury Secretary Bessent told Congress that Trump is “very likely” to delay the implementation of tariffs scheduled for July 8. Countries negotiating in good faith may be granted deadline extensions. Talks are currently ongoing with 18 countries. Those that do not cooperate will face consequences.

Despite the announcement of “90 deals in 90 days,” so far only a preliminary agreement has been reached with the United Kingdom. The delays are raising skepticism about the pace and seriousness of the negotiations. Bessent emphasized that the U.S. goal in relations with China is fair trade. The key issues remain limiting Chinese exports and balancing the trade deficit.

According to Bloomberg reports, Trump intends to announce new unilateral tariffs within the next two weeks. No details were provided. This move confirms his aggressive trade strategy. Markets are awaiting information on which countries and sectors might be affected by the new rates.

A survey by Japan’s Ministry of Finance showed a sharp drop in business confidence in Q2. The large firms index fell to -1.9, and the services index to -0.5 — the first negative readings in over a year. The data adds pressure on the Bank of Japan to maintain its current policy at the June 16–17 meeting.

Consumer inflation expectations in Australia rose to 5.0% in June, up from 4.1% in May — the highest level since July 2023. If the trend continues, markets may begin to price in a more hawkish policy stance.

There were reports that Israel is prepared to strike Iranian military facilities, prompting the U.S. to recommend its citizens consider leaving the region.

Despite this, U.S.–Iran nuclear talks are still set to take place on Sunday. The conflicting messages underscore a high level of geopolitical uncertainty. Oil prices initially rose but failed to hold gains.

The European Central Bank reported that global central banks continued buying gold at record levels in 2024. The euro’s share in international currency transactions remains around 19%, making it the second most used currency in the world.

China’s Vice President Han Zheng met with French President Emmanuel Macron, expressing China’s intention to deepen cooperation with the EU. He emphasized support for multilateral development goals and sustainable progress in small island nations. The visit aimed to showcase China’s constructive international role and to counterbalance U.S. influence.

The Senate approved the legislative procedure for the stablecoin bill (GENIUS Act) by a vote of 68–30. The bill could be passed as early as next week. The proposal includes a requirement for stablecoins to be backed by U.S. Treasury bonds. The Trump administration supports the bill as a means to strengthen the dollar’s global position.