OPEC+ will raise oil production by 137 kb/d in October, beginning to unwind part of the 1.65 mb/d in voluntary cuts that had been set to last through 2026, while ~2.0 mb/d of broader curbs remain in place.
The group has already lifted quotas by ~2.5 mb/d between April and September as it shifts from defending prices to regaining market share. Eight key members (including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, Oman) will meet again on October 5 to set November policy, keeping all options open.
In the coming months, the supply scenario leans toward expansion. Even before the latest meeting, the EIA projected a surplus of ~3 mb/d from October 2025 through end-2026. Additional growth outside OPEC+ (U.S., Canada, Argentina) raises the likelihood of an oversupply scenario materializing in Q4/Q1. Saudi Arabia appears best positioned to add barrels.
The price reaction in oil was muted. Prices had already fallen on Friday ahead of Sunday’s OPEC+ meeting and after an unexpected U.S. inventory build. WTI crude fell to $61.50/bbl. However, Friday’s sell-off has now been almost fully retraced. Today, WTI crude is up 1.40% to $62.85/bbl.
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