The second half of Tuesday’s session is bringing a clear drop in U.S. natural gas futures prices. NATGAS is losing around 2%, sliding toward the psychological level of about ~3,00 USD/MMBtu.
- The main bearish factor remains the U.S. weather outlook. Forecast models point to temperatures above the seasonal norm in the central and eastern parts of the country, which reduces expected heating demand and delays the start of the seasonal increase in gas consumption. From the recent local peak, the contract has already lost more than 10% over the last five trading sessions alone.
- Supply pressure persists despite the latest EIA data, which showed inventories rising by 67 Bcf versus expectations of about 76 Bcf.
- A supportive factor for prices remains strong LNG exports and a decline in domestic production, but for now buyers are clearly retreating.
NATGAS (D1)
The technical picture on the NATGAS price chart shows a key moment for both sides of the market. Price has stopped exactly at the line of an expanding uptrend, below the 100 and 200 EMA. This move allows for building a base from a rebound off the lower boundary of the rising channel, but the risk for buyers remains high. The momentum of the EMA remains bearish since the beginning of this year, and the RSI (14), although lower, is still far from oversold.
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