US OPEN: Indices Hover Near Records Amid Cautious Optimism (18.07.2025)

Wall Street traders remain optimistic for the third consecutive day, with most major US indices extending gains over yesterday’s batch of optimistic macroeconomic data. Both S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures reached for new intraday highs (currently flat), while Dow Jones lagged behind due to lack of post-earnings enthusiasm on Amex and 3M stocks.

The sentiment has been partially supported by Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller who made his clearest call yet for a rate cut at the upcoming July meeting. Waller advocated a 125–150 basis point reduction to bring the rate to 3%,  dismissing tariff-driven inflation as temporary. Waller, seen as a potential successor to Chair Jerome Powell, emphasized his views are not political, though they align with President Trump’s push for steep rate cuts.

Volatility in S&P 500 sectors. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP

US30 (H1)

Dow Jones futures have corrected their pre-market gains. The contract tried to revert back to 30-period exponential moving average (EMA30; light purple) following an optimistic report on consumer sentiment from University of Michigan, but the sellers took over once again, bringing the US30 back to the EMA100 (dark purple). RSI is getting progressively closer to the oversold area, which may encourage resumed buying once the contract hits the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level.

Source: xStation5

Company news:

• 3M shares (MMM.US) are down 3% despite pre-market gains after beating Q2 estimates with EPS of $2.16 on $6.16B revenue. The company raised its 2025 profit forecast and lowered expected tariff impact to $0.10 per share, down from $0.20–$0.40 previously.

• American Express (AXP.US) beat Q2 forecasts with $416.3B in billed business, driven by strong premium card spending. Revenue rose 9.3% to $17.9B. Credit performance remained solid, though provisions and expenses climbed. Amex reaffirmed 2025 guidance and teased updates to its Platinum card amid intensifying premium-card competition. Nevertheless, shares follow the 3M’s case and drop 3.7%.

• Charles Schwab (SCHW.US) shares rose 3% after Q2 earnings and revenue topped expectations. Adjusted EPS was $1.14 vs. $1.10 expected, with revenue hitting a record $5.85B. A 23% surge in trading revenue and over 1M new accounts drove strong results, pushing total client assets to $10.76T.

• Chevron’s (CVX.US) $53 billion acquisition of Hess is moving forward after Hess won an arbitration dispute with Exxon. The ruling clears a key hurdle for the deal. Oil prices edged up as robust summer fuel demand helped offset supply glut concerns. Shares are up 1.1%.

• Meta (META.US) has hired two senior Apple AI researchers, Mark Lee and Tom Gunter, for its Superintelligence Labs, following the high-profile poaching of their boss, Ruoming Pang. The hires underscore Meta’s aggressive push in AI, luring top talent with massive compensation as Apple faces internal uncertainty. Tech giant’s stock is currently down 1,15%.

• Netflix (NFLX.US) beat Q2 estimates with EPS of $7.19 on $11.08B revenue and raised its full-year revenue outlook. Despite the strong report, shares slipped after hours as investors viewed the modest operating margin guidance (raised to 29.5% from 29%) as underwhelming given high expectations. The stock is currently down 5.4%