US OPEN: Wall Street under pressure from oil and semiconductors

Monday’s session on the New York market is starting with growing investor caution. Investors are clearly shifting into wait-and-see mode ahead of the release of key CPI inflation data and the start of quarterly earnings reports from the banking sector. Supply has the upper hand in the first hours of trading, but declines remain moderate. The biggest loser is the U.S. technology index, whose futures are down around 0.5%.

Brent crude oil is up more than 2% and breaks above USD 106 per barrel following missile and drone attacks on Saudi Arabia and on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz area. Weekend reports about a Russian-U.S. agreement do not appear to be putting pressure on commodity prices.

A major negative fundamental factor is news about progress at China’s CXMT. Concerns are amplified by warnings from Intel and Broadcom representatives about capital constraints on AI development.

The U.S. bond market is closed today for Columbus Day, which limits liquidity and shifts equity market attention to the Wall Street bank earnings season starting Tuesday. The lack of liquidity in the debt market increases uncertainty in the equity market.

Capital is flowing out today from chipmakers and telecoms into defensive healthcare companies, selected software providers with AI exposure, and the oil and refining sector.

Company news

• Semiconductors: Micron Technology (MU.US) is down 4% and AMD (AMD.US) is down 2% after reports that Chinese competitor CXMT has developed a new memory architecture capable of holding more data, raising concerns about margin erosion for Western manufacturers. Sentiment in the segment was also hurt by warnings from Broadcom and Intel management about a capital shortfall for expanding AI infrastructure.
• Adobe (ADBE.US): The stock is down 3.0% after a Wells Fargo note. Analysts pointed to “cracks” in the company’s growth story so far and rising pressure from alternative generative models.
• Salesforce (CRM.US): Shares are up 2.5% after BofA Global Research upgraded the stock to “buy.” The institution cites accelerating monetization of enterprise AI tool deployments and increasing cost discipline.
• Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY.US): The pharmaceutical company announced that a late-stage study of a lower dose of an experimental lung disease drug met its primary endpoint. Initial gains were erased, and the stock is currently down about 3%.
• Biogen (BIIB.US): The stock is up 3% following a JPMorgan note. The bank points to a highly promising pipeline of catalysts and new drug approvals with a horizon through 2027.
• Iren (IREN.US): Shares are up 4% after a report by The Information saying that the former mining company, now an AI data center provider, signed a multi-year cloud contract with the startup Anthropic.
• CCC Intelligent Solutions (CCC.US): The shares jumped more than 10% after unofficial reports that private equity funds GTCR and Elliott Investment Management are in advanced talks to buy the company and take it private.
• IonQ (IONQ.US): Trading in the quantum company’s shares was halted after it announced the acquisition of Elisity in a deal worth up to USD 1.3 billion in stock, aimed at building a cybersecurity platform resilient to threats in the quantum era. Before the halt, the stock was down about 3%.

Technical analysis US100 (D1)

Valuations are pulling back from the recent peak, stopping at a broad resistance zone defined by previous highs between roughly 31,000 and 30,600. The initiative remains on the buyers’ side, as indicated by the momentum of the EMA averages and RSI (14) at 57 points. The key level for demand to defend is around 30,600, additionally supported by the 25-day EMA. If the consolidation breaks to the downside, a potential target for sellers could be to push the price close to the downtrend line from the June to September period. Source: xStation5

Macroeconomic data

Columbus Day reduces macro releases to a minimum, but the third week of October will bring a series of investor-relevant updates.

• Tuesday (pre-market): Start of the U.S. Q3 earnings season; key financial institutions will report quarterly results: JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo.
• Wednesday: Release of the U.S. consumer inflation (CPI) report for September, a key reading for market pricing of future Fed decisions.
• Thursday: Release of U.S. producer inflation (PPI) data.