US100 drops 1.8% 🚨

Nasdaq-100 futures plunged nearly 1.8% on Thursday, with the US100 falling to 29,467 points (-554 points, -1.85%), as investors once again focused on the “cost” of investing in artificial intelligence. Although Meta beat revenue forecasts (up 26% to $64.6 billion) and SpaceX reported its first profit as a public company, optimism had already evaporated in Asia. The market focused on the costs of AI investments—Meta’s plan to issue Class C shares reignited concerns about the scale of its capital commitments, and Lam Research’s weak outlook sent the company down more than 8% after the close. Tesla is down about 5% in premarket trading, and the chip sector is retreating across the board (Intel and Marvell down more than 5%, Nvidia down 2.2%).

The macroeconomic backdrop isn’t helping: Brent crude is up more than 2% to around $108 following further Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, while U.S. 10-year Treasury yields are falling to about 5.09%. In France, the situation looks worse, as yields on 10-year OATs are already rising to 5.05%, widening the spread against German bonds.

Technical Analysis (US100, daily timeframe)

The price fell below the EMA100 (29,526) today, which had served as dynamic support over the past few weeks—this is the first sign of a weakening in the short-term trend. The key support zone is around 29,000–29,300 points (the highlighted support rectangle coinciding with the volume profile and the September lows); whether this level holds will determine whether we are dealing merely with a correction within an uptrend. Below this level, the path opens up to the EMA200 at 28,314 points, which is the structural defense line for the entire rally since April.

The RSI (14), currently at 39, is moving toward the oversold zone but has not yet reached extreme levels—this leaves room for the downtrend to continue before a technical rebound occurs. 

Market breadth reflects caution: only 56% of Nasdaq-100 companies are trading above their 50-day moving average, and the index’s gap from the 200-day EMA has narrowed to +6.2%—a far cry from earlier, overheated levels. Source: XTB

The Nasdaq-100 forward P/E ratio has fallen to 21.9x (below the 126-day average of 23.7x), which somewhat tempers the argument that the market is extremely overvalued; however, in the current environment, it is the valuation of future earnings growth—not multiples—that may determine the direction of the stock market. Source: XTB