Bitcoin is falling today to around $68,000, its lowest level since late March, while technical indicators continue to point to overwhelming selling pressure. The world's largest cryptocurrency is entering the historically weak summer season with a sharp decline that is also weighing on Ethereum and smaller digital assets. Yesterday, the market was additionally pressured by news that Strategy (MSTR.US) sold Bitcoin for the first time since 2022.
Bitcoin (D1 and W1 Interval)
Bitcoin's price action continues to signal weakness. On the daily chart, the cryptocurrency has broken below a triangle pattern, a development that may increase downside risks toward the local low near $60,000. A break below that support zone would strengthen the bearish case and could open the door to a deeper decline toward the $40,000 area, where several important on-chain metrics are located, including the Realized Price and the so-called Delta Price.
Source: xStation5
Source: xStation5
If the current correction were to replicate the previous cycle on a near one-to-one basis, the potential bottom could emerge around $45,000–47,000 per Bitcoin, potentially before the end of June. On the other hand, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is already approaching oversold territory, currently near 37.
Historically, major cycle bottoms on the weekly timeframe have occurred at significantly lower RSI levels. During the 2022 bear market, RSI fell close to 20 before Bitcoin established a durable low. However, during the March 2020 market crash, the indicator bottomed near 34, suggesting that current readings are beginning to approach levels associated with previous periods of extreme market stress.
Source: xStation5
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