The DOE report on inventories for the week ending September 25, 2026, brought a mixed picture of the energy market. A surprising increase in crude oil inventories was offset by a much deeper-than-forecast drop in refined product stocks
Inventory changes:
- Crude oil: +0.922 million barrels (forecast: 0.50 million; previous: +2.969 million) (API estimate: +1.019 million)
- Distillates (diesel and heating oil): −2.251 million barrels (forecast: −0.350 million; previous: −0.428 million) (API estimate: −0.286 million)
- Gasoline: −1.684 million barrels (forecast: −1.0 million; previous: −1.686 million) (API estimate: +2.991 million)
- Crude oil at Cushing hub: +0.555 million barrels (previous: +2.266 million)
- Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR): −0.800 million barrels (API data from post)
An unexpected increase in crude oil inventories usually puts downward pressure on the commodity's prices, but a strong decline in refined fuel stocks halts this sell-off and supports refinery margins. Although global data shows an increasing return to normality, the market remains tight and the current decline in distillates may continue amid the threat of a diesel export ban (which ultimately could even lead to a reduction in its volume on the US market). In response to today's report, crude oil is rebounding sharply.
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