- Change in crude oil inventories according to DOE: 3.72 million barrels (Expected: 2.3 million barrels; Previous: 1.79 million barrels)
- Change in gasoline inventories: -1.6 million barrels (Expected: -1.4 million barrels; Previous: 4.12 million barrels)
- Change in distillate inventories: -2.02 million barrels (Expected: -0.7 million barrels; Previous: 0.56 million barrels)
The oil market continues to experience an oversupply of crude, as evidenced by the rising oil inventories in the USA. However, there is a noticeable shortage of gasoline and distillates, indicating insufficient refining capacity relative to current demand. The sustained high demand for gasoline suggests that the American economy remains in good condition, with fuel consumption remaining strong. On the other hand, rising gasoline prices may exert inflationary pressure, especially concerning transportation and logistics costs. Regionally, the largest decline in gasoline inventories was recorded in the PADD 3 area (Gulf Coast), which may indicate increased fuel exports from this key refining hub.
Meanwhile, the increase in inventories in PADD 1 (East Coast) suggests that local entities may be aiming to rebuild reserves after previous declines and prepare for potential increased consumption in the coming weeks.
The market reaction to the latest data was moderate but still bearish. Following the release of the DOE report, a downwards candlestick with long upper and lower shadows appeared on the oil price chart, indicating a high level of uncertainty among investors. Initially, the market attempted to discount the declines in finished product inventories, but the prevailing signal of crude oil oversupply outweighed, leading to a price correction. Such a candlestick formation often reflects a lack of clear direction and nervousness among traders, which may suggest that investors are waiting for further macroeconomic data or guidance on OPEC+ production policy before taking more decisive actions.
Source: Xstation5
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