In light of today’s scheduled macroeconomic releases from the United States, the FX market’s attention will be entirely focused on the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report at 1230 PM (GMT). Therefore, we can expect heightened volatility on the EURUSD pair, especially if the labor market data surprises in either direction. A weaker-than-expected report could trigger gains for the pair, particularly considering that both the Eurozone GDP revision and retail sales figures surprised to the upside.
On the other hand, a strong NFP report could reinforce Tuesday’s JOLTS data and signal that despite the weaker ADP figures, the U.S. economy remains resilient enough that the Federal Reserve won’t risk a rate cut before Q4 2025. Such a scenario, combined with the continued strength of the U.S. economy, could support a downward move in the EURUSD pair and a rebound for the recently sold-off U.S. dollar.
United States, Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) change for May:
-
Actual: +126K vs +177K previous
-
Private sector: +120K vs +167K previous
-
Manufacturing: -5K expected vs +1K previous
-
Unemployment rate: 4.2%, unchanged
-
Average hourly earnings: +3.7% y/y vs +3.8% previous; +0.3% m/m vs +0.2% previous
EURUSD (D1 chart)
In a bearish scenario for the EURUSD, the double top pattern could provide bears with enough momentum to push the price back toward the 50-period EMA (orange line) around the 1.13 level. The key resistance zone is currently between 1.145 and 1.15.
Source: xStation5
Bond Markets Sell Off❗️TNOTE Dips Below 1-Year Low 📉
Kevin Warsh Faces the Fed’s Biggest Test Yet. Trump Wants Rate Cuts, Inflation Says “No”
Market Wrap: Stocks and metals dip as Trump-Xi summit fails to break Iran deadlock 📉 (15.05.2026)
Chart of the Day: Is the Yen Ready for Another Round?
The material on this page does not constitute as financial advice and does not take into account your level of understanding, investment objectives, financial situation or any other particular needs.
All the information provided, including opinions, market research, mathematical results and technical analyses published on the website or transmitted to you by other means is provided for information purposes only and should in no event be interpreted as an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument, nor should the information provided be construed as advice of legal or fiscal nature.
Any investment decisions you make shall be based exclusively on your level of understanding, investment objectives, financial situation or any other particular needs. Any decision to act on information published on the website or transmitted to you by other means is entirely at your own risk. You are solely responsible for such decisions.
If you are in doubt or are not sure that you understand a particular product, instrument, service, or transaction, you should seek professional or legal advice before trading.
Investing in OTC Derivatives carries a high degree of risk, as they are leveraged based products and often small movements in the market could lead to much larger movements in the value of your investment and this could work against you or for you. Please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved, taking into account your investments objectives and level of experience, before trading, and if necessary, seek independent advice.
