Daily summary: Wall Street gains on dovish Fed bets, dollar hits local bottom (15.09.2025)

Wall Street opens new week with notable gains, as investors are increasingly betting on dovish Fed stance during the upcoming FOMC. US100 futures are up about 0.6%, fueled by Tesla rally, triggered by Elon Musk's largest filling for the stock. The broader US500 gains 0.35%, showing investors’ optimism toward monetary easing.

The NY Empire State index for September came in at -8.7, well below forecasts of 4.9 and the prior 11.9, pointing to deteriorating conditions in New York’s manufacturing sector and weaker economic activity.

Alphabet (Google’s parent company) reached a $3 trillion market cap for the first time, joining Apple and Microsoft in the corporate elite. Growth is driven by rising revenues (especially from AI, cloud, and digital services) and a favorable US court ruling dismissing plans to break up the firm.

China has launched an antitrust probe into Nvidia, accusing it of monopolizing the semiconductor market and discriminating against Chinese firms, which pressured Nvidia shares and the US100 index. Combined with rising local competition and US export curbs, these challenges could weigh heavily on Nvidia’s business in China.

In Europe, gains dominated: ITA40 +0.87%, EU50 +0.69%, FRA40 +0.72%, DE40 +0.06%. Only Switzerland’s SUI20 declined (-0.36%).

In Switzerland, August producer price inflation (PPI) posted its steepest drop in years: -1.8% y/y vs -0.9% prior, pointing to falling cost pressures in manufacturing, which may influence future SNB policy.

Poland’s CPI for August was 2.9% y/y, slightly above July’s 2.8% and market forecasts. On a monthly basis, CPI was flat after -0.1% in July, a minor overshoot vs expectations.

The dollar index fell to a 3-week low (USDIDX: -0.2%), reflecting dovish Fed expectations. Markets fully price a 25bp cut at Wednesday’s FOMC, with hopes for a more dovish Powell. The euro is today’s strongest G10 currency (EURUSD: +0.3% to 1.176, EURJPY: +0.15%, EURGBP: +0.05%), while AUDUSD leads against the dollar (AUDUSD: +0.4%).

Arabica COFFEE futures jumped 6%, lifting New York prices to their highest since April 2025, supported by Brazil’s drought, trade tensions with the US, and BRL appreciation.

Energy commodities mostly trade higher: Brent +1.1%, WTI +1.4%, NATGAS +2.2%, extending recovery after last week’s sell-off.

Bitcoin hovers near $115,000, trying to maintain bullish momentum, while Ethereum corrects lower toward $4,500. Sentiment remains mixed, supported by ETF inflows but pressured by Fed policy uncertainty.