On Wednesday, sentiment in Europe is being shaken by the violation of Polish airspace by Russian drones and further French political turmoil after Emmanuel Macron appointed a new prime minister. For markets, however, geopolitical issues currently have limited significance, with attention increasingly shifting toward U.S. monetary policy.
The macroeconomic release calendar will be dominated mainly by data from the United States, while the lack of major publications in Europe should highlight the weight and tension ahead of U.S. producer price inflation data. The previous PPI print came in significantly above expectations, ending a run of soft data and complacency regarding the impact of Donald Trump’s tariffs on inflation. We will also receive the EIA report on energy commodities.
Today’s economic calendar:
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13:00 BST, Germany – Speech by Buch, Vice President of the German Bundesbank
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13:30 BST, United States – August producer inflation data:
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PPI index: forecast 3.3% y/y; previous 3.3% y/y
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PPI index: forecast 0.3% m/m; previous 0.9% m/m
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PPI ex. food/energy/transport: previous 2.8% y/y
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PPI ex. food/energy/transport: previous 0.6% m/m
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Core PPI: forecast 0.3% m/m; previous 0.9% m/m
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Core PPI: forecast 3.5% y/y; previous 3.7% y/y
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15:30 BST, United States – EIA report:
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Crude oil inventories: forecast -1.900M; previous 2.415M
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Gasoline inventories: previous -3.795M
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Weekly refinery utilization rates – EIA (w/w): previous -0.3%
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Heating oil inventories: previous 0.557M
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Gasoline production: previous -0.109M
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Distillate fuel oil stocks – EIA: previous 1.681M
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Distillate fuel oil production: previous 0.036M
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Cushing crude oil inventories: previous 1.590M
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Crude oil imports: previous 0.434M
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Refinery crude throughput – EIA (w/w): previous -0.011M
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18:00 BST, United States – 10-year Treasury auction: previous 4.255%
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18:00 BST, United States – GDP data:
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Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q3): forecast 3.0%; previous 3.0%
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