First round of elections in France this Sunday

The French election could end in a surprise, until recently Emmanuel Macron's win was almost certain. The first round of the French presidential election will take place on Sunday 10 April. France is one of Europe's largest economies and one of NATO's three nuclear powers:

• Support for Emmanuel Macron is falling, with right-wing Marine LePen the most prominent contender. The dynamic support for Le-Pen comes as a surprise to analysts. The final election result is likely to be known after the second round, which is likely to be between LePen and Macron;

• LePen has stirred controversy by being critical of France's NATO membership and sanctions policy towards Russia. A potential LePen win could cause a crisis in NATO and hinder the consolidation of the West's policy towards Russia. LePen appeals to 'ordinary French people' in her campaign by promising to lower the retirement age and a conservative policy towards Russia;

• The value of Russian exports to France increased by more than 15% in 2021 (mainly natural gas, oil);

• Western societies are worried about the economic consequences in the face of a crisis in relations with Russia. French public clearly starting to worry about bill prices, Macron's diplomatic efforts may not be enough for victory

• LePen's victory will potentially weaken the EU and NATO. It also poses a challenge to US, UK and NATO's eastern flank policies;

• 'Continental consolidation' in Europe is not in the interest of the US, which seeks to unite the West against an aggressive Russia and China;

• On the wave of LePen's victory in France, changes in foreign policy may also be reconsidered by Germany, for which France is a strategic partner. Germany is heavily dependent on Russia for energy, a society all the more likely to fear energy price rises and war-pumped inflation, which could deplete citizens' wallets and put pressure on the authorities;

The graph shows growing support for Marine LePen. Macron's other main challenger, the left-wing Melenchon, although recently gaining, can hardly count on entering the second round. Source: EuroSelects

French index remains below the neckline of RGR formation, which remains the key resistance. Support  in turn, is located in the 6435 points level. Source: xStation5