- The prospects of a lasting agreement between the US and Iran are dimming.
- Oil and gas prices are on the rise.
- European stock markets are lacking a clear direction.
- Companies from the banking, energy and commodities sectors lead the way.
- The prospects of a lasting agreement between the US and Iran are dimming.
- Oil and gas prices are on the rise.
- European stock markets are lacking a clear direction.
- Companies from the banking, energy and commodities sectors lead the way.
Monday morning brought higher crude oil and natural gas prices, primarily due to the lack of progress in US-Iran negotiations. The probability of a lasting agreement between the two countries, as implied by the Polymarket portal, is falling – the portal currently assigns a roughly 40% chance that this will happen before the end of June.
- A Brent barrel currently costs just under $104, whilst a MWh of gas on the Dutch TTF exchange is around $45.
This weighs on European indices, with the French CAC 40 (-1.2%) standing out as the clear underperformer. The pan-European STOXX 600 (-0.2%) and the German DAX (-0.4%) are both printing in red too, with the Polish WIG20 (1%) the only clear winner.
At the top of the dashboards we find companies from the banking, energy and commodities sectors, which are benefiting from the receding prospect of the war coming to an end.
Figure 1: European banking sector performance dashboard [1-day % move] (11/05/2026)
Source: xStation, 11/05/2026 (14:05)
Figure 2: European energy sector performance dashboard [1-day % move] (11/05/2026)
Source: xStation, 11/05/2026 (14:07)
Figure 3: European metals&mining sector performance dashboard [1-day % move] (11/05/2026)
Source: xStation, 11/05/2026 (14:06)
From a macroeconomic perspective, the main focus is on inflation figures from China. Both CPI (consumer) and PPI (producer) inflation came in well above expectations. The latter is particularly worrying, having reached a 45-month high (2.8%) in April. This is consistent with detailed data from recent PMI reports, which showed increases in input prices even before the outbreak of war in the Middle East.
In the environment outlined above, the yuan is performing well – the USD/CNY pair has broken through the 6.80 level in recent days, a level last seen over three years ago.
Inflation has also edged up in Norway. The core measure rose to 3.2%, suggesting the need for further monetary tightening. Last week, Norges Bank raised its key interest rate to 4.25%. Markets are fully pricing in another rate hike later this year, assigning a probability of around 40% to two hikes in the period in question.
—
Michał Jóźwiak
XTB Financial Markets Analyst
michal.jozwiak@xtb.com
Daily Summary: Hot inflation and awaiting for news from Beijing
US OPEN: Higher inflation to cap gains?
🚀 US PPI inflation skyrockets to 6%
Market Wrap: Bulls return to Wall Street (13.05.2026)
The material on this page does not constitute as financial advice and does not take into account your level of understanding, investment objectives, financial situation or any other particular needs.
All the information provided, including opinions, market research, mathematical results and technical analyses published on the website or transmitted to you by other means is provided for information purposes only and should in no event be interpreted as an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument, nor should the information provided be construed as advice of legal or fiscal nature.
Any investment decisions you make shall be based exclusively on your level of understanding, investment objectives, financial situation or any other particular needs. Any decision to act on information published on the website or transmitted to you by other means is entirely at your own risk. You are solely responsible for such decisions.
If you are in doubt or are not sure that you understand a particular product, instrument, service, or transaction, you should seek professional or legal advice before trading.
Investing in OTC Derivatives carries a high degree of risk, as they are leveraged based products and often small movements in the market could lead to much larger movements in the value of your investment and this could work against you or for you. Please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved, taking into account your investments objectives and level of experience, before trading, and if necessary, seek independent advice.
