Morning wrap (23.09.2026)

Oil continues to decline, with Brent crude falling to $98.50 per barrel today. The U.S. and Iran held lengthy Qatar-mediated talks on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly.

Diplomatic hopes, combined with improving supply from Saudi Arabia, have reduced part of the geopolitical risk premium. However, Iran’s demands remain extensive, meaning the market is still far from pricing in a lasting agreement.

Saudi Arabia has restarted its East-West pipeline and is preparing to resume exports through Yanbu. Saudi crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz have also recovered significantly. This improves the near-term physical supply outlook following several weeks of disruptions.

Tehran is demanding an end to hostilities on all fronts, the removal of the U.S. naval blockade, the release of frozen assets, sanctions relief, and an exemption allowing oil exports. Qatar and Pakistan are involved in mediation, while Iran is also seeking a greater role for China.

The Japanese yen remains weak despite the Bank of Japan raising interest rates to their highest level in more than three decades. Elevated U.S. Treasury yields continue to support USDJPY. The pair is up 0.20% today at 157.615.

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield remains close to 5% despite the recent decline in oil prices. This suggests that pressure on the bond market is no longer driven solely by energy prices, but also by expectations of tighter Fed policy and persistent fiscal concerns.

Gold is trading around $4,360 per ounce, down 0.40%, while silver is down 0.90% at $66.450.

Australia’s preliminary Composite PMI fell to 50.8 in September. Manufacturing returned to contraction territory, private-sector employment declined, and business confidence weakened. At the same time, output price inflation accelerated, creating a difficult combination for the RBA.

Weaker activity indicators in Australia have not eliminated expectations of a rate hike at the September 29 meeting. Inflation remains the main concern, particularly as higher energy costs feed through into services and output prices.

The Asian Development Bank maintained its China growth forecast at 4.6% for 2026 and 4.5% for 2027. At the same time, it lowered its 2026 inflation forecast to just 0.9%.

The Trump administration is considering a full or partial ban on U.S. diesel exports amid record-high domestic fuel prices.