The market reacted very nervously yesterday to reports that OpenAI’s annualized revenue was approaching around $50 billion at the end of September, rather than the roughly $70 billion figure that had previously been widely expected by the market. Following the news, Nasdaq 100 futures fell by around 2%, as investors interpreted the lower figure as a sign of weaker monetization of the AI boom. Today, however, US100 is recovering part of those losses and is up nearly 0.7%.
- The difference may primarily reflect reporting methodology rather than an actual collapse in revenue. Anthropic reportedly includes revenue generated through cloud partners such as AWS and Google Cloud, while OpenAI apparently does not. Some investors had previously “adjusted” OpenAI’s figures to make them more comparable with Anthropic.
- It is also worth noting that companies such as OpenAI and Anthropic may recognize revenue unevenly, with periods of exceptionally strong growth followed by temporary or seasonal stagnation. Their revenue trends should therefore be assessed over a multi-month horizon rather than based on a single point in time.
- This means that the roughly $20 billion gap does not necessarily represent a hole in OpenAI’s business, but may instead reflect differences in comparability between the companies. If that is the case, the market reaction was driven more by a change in the headline number than by a genuine deterioration in the company’s growth trajectory.
- For the Nasdaq, the more important issue than OpenAI’s standalone revenue figure is whether technology companies continue to maintain very high levels of spending on data centers, semiconductors and AI infrastructure. As long as CAPEX remains strong, a single accounting difference in how OpenAI reports revenue does not necessarily imply a deterioration in the broader AI investment case.
- The nervous market reaction also highlights how high expectations for AI currently are. With technology valuations elevated, even information that does not fundamentally change the growth story can become a trigger for profit-taking and a sharper correction.
US100 chart (H1 timeframe)
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