Wall Street stumbles amid U.S. government shutdown risk 🏛️ Gold gains

• During the European session, sentiment was largely positive, with major indexes posting gains. The strongest performers were the IBREX, up more than 1.2%, and the SMI20, which gained nearly 1%. The DAX rose by 0.5%, the FTSE100 by 0.6%, while the CAC and FTSE MIB advanced by 0.2% each.
• Macroeconomic data from Europe came in mixed. The UK GDP print was optimistic, while German CPI came in slightly above expectations. On the other hand, inflation in Italy and France fell short of forecasts.
• Nvidia surpassed a $4.5 trillion market capitalization after yet another strong session. The company’s valuation is now approaching the size of Germany’s GDP. Shares are up nearly 3% today, though sentiment on Wall Street remains fragile amid the looming risk of a government shutdown, which could take effect at 00:01 on October 1.
• Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said this is now the most likely scenario. A shutdown would mean delays in key macro reports, including Friday’s NFP data. Prediction platform Kalshi is pricing the probability of a shutdown at over 80%. U.S. data also came in mixed today, with Chicago Fed PMI down to 'recessionary' 40.6 vs 43.3 exp. and 41.5 previously and slightly better than expected housing reports. Key US macro releases showed:

• US JOLTS Job Openings (August): 7.227M (Forecast: 7.2M; Previous: 7.181M)

• US CB Consumer Confidence: 94.2 (Forecast: 96; Previous: 97.4; Revised to 94.2)

According to the Conference Board, average 12-month inflation expectations picked up in August, rising to 6.2% from 5.7% in July, after three consecutive months of easing. Expectations remain below the April peak of 7%.

• Looking at U.S. equities, CoreWeave surged more than 10% after reports it will provide computing power for Meta Platforms. Meanwhile, shares of Swedish Spotify fell over 6% on Nasdaq after a JP Morgan analyst note highlighted risks tied to the departure of long-time CEO Daniel Ek, who stepped down today after 20 years.
• A hawkish Bank of Japan and concerns over the U.S. government shutdown supported the Japanese yen against the U.S. dollar, with USDJPY down 0.5%. The Australian dollar, meanwhile, gained following hawkish comments from RBA Governor Bullock.
• The prospect of a U.S. political crisis increased demand for safe-haven assets. Gold rose another 0.3% and is set to close September with a nearly 10% monthly gain. In contrast, platinum saw profit-taking, with prices down more than 0.3%.
• Cocoa futures fell 3.5%, hitting a 10-month low, pressured by optimistic harvest forecasts in West Africa ahead of the new season in Ivory Coast. Wheat futures dropped over 2.5% after a U.S. Department of Agriculture report pointed to higher inventories.
• The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) Secretariat issued a statement today, denying Reuters report, which claimed that OPEC and its allies are planning to increase crude oil production in November by 500,000 barrels per day on Sunday meeting. Oil recovers heavy losses after the statement.
• Cryptocurrency sentiment was particularly negative today. With few exceptions, most digital assets recorded losses. Smaller-cap tokens were the hardest hit, while Bitcoin fell 0.8% and Ethereum dropped more than 3%.