Actualización macroeconómica: MPekín trata de reavivar el crecimiento

Resumen: 

• El resurgir de los datos de crédito en China 
• La inflación base se perfila moderada en EEUU
• Los datos de manufacturas de Reino Unido se recuperan

Asia – Beijing tries it again

After a period of slowing economic growth data for March from China started on a bright note with all 4 PMIs rising. As the Friday’s data revealed, it wasn’t a coincidence. While the trade data was a bit mixed – exports recovered but for the first 3 months it grew just 1% y/y and imports actually declined 4.5% y/y, monetary data is a clear sign that officials want to spur growth again. The first quarter saw the highest amount of new credit ever and even in y/y terms it’s a surge not far off the one that helped revive growth back in 2016. That is in stark contrast to 2017-2018 when authorities attempted to reduce leverage in the economy and obviously could have dramatic long-term consequences. However, if China sustains this credit expansion, it could at least dampen an impact of slowdown in Europe and a likely slowdown in the US.     

Beijing reacted to a slowdown with an unprecedented increase of new credit. Source: Macrobond, XTB Research

US – mixed inflation, lower orders

The data from the US have been a bit uninspiring. The most anticipated CPI report was a no-mover as headline inflation accelerated from 1.5% in February to 1.9% in March but the core inflation (less food and energy) actually softened from 2.1% to 2%. On the bright side weekly claims have dropped to the lowest level in 50 years (!) underscoring strength of the labour market and in the past it usually took some form of turnaround here before a recession took place. However, durable orders were below expectations and a clear downward trend shows that a positive effect of tax cuts is already waning. The next week will be more interesting with retail sales and flash PMIs giving a better update on the US economy.  

US durable orders are clearly in a downward trend. Source: Macrobond, XTB Research

Europe – higher production in the UK

For Europe this week was even more lackluster. Trade data from Germany was disappointing but UK output report confirmed that a manufacturing picked-up across Europe in February. All this will be meaningless next week when flash PMIs for April will be released. All eyes will be on the German manufacturing PMI that dipped to a recessionary level in March.