Summary:
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Swedish retail sales expected to rebound in July
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Will CB consumer confidence confirm drop signalled by UoM?
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Oil inventories data may ease ongoing rally on the oil market
After an usual calm Monday investors will be offered a couple interesting macroeconomic readings on Tuesday. The Swedish retail sales reading may spur some volatility on SEK in the morning as investors will see whether July’s data confirm significant drop seen in June. Apart from that, several readings from the US are scheduled for today, including goods trade balance and CB consumer confidence (note that UoM counterpart took significant dive in August). Last but not least, weekly piece of oil data from API will see daylight in the late evening.
8:30 am BST - Sweden, Retail Sales for July. The sole macroeconomic reading worth watching scheduled for today from the Old Continent. The Swedish retail sales greatly disappointed investors when they show a 0.2% YoY drop in June against expectations of 2.9% increase. If such a tendency was to prevail questions could be raised about the state of the demand side in the Swedish economy. Nevertheless, a small rebound is expected in July as the gauge should move from 0.2% YoY to 0.5% YoY.
1:30 pm BST - US, Wholesale inventories and goods trade balance for July. While it might have gotten a bit quite lately the Trade Wars theme certainly did not wane. The deal between China and the US still has not been struck but negotiations are said to be under way. Having said that, it might be wise to follow trade data. The US is expected to show $69 billion deficit on the goods trade balance, what would be a minor increase against $68.3 billion seen last time. Apart from that, the preliminary wholesale inventories reading for July should show a 0.2% MoM increase against last month’s 0.1% MoM advance .
3:00 pm BST - US, CB Consumer Confidence for August. While the CB consumer confidence index has seen just a minor pullback lately, the UoM counterpart took quite a noticeable dive. Moreover, the latter one disappointed investors significantly in July. Market participants will now turn to the CB reading to see whether it confirms trend started by Michigan readings or not. Market consensus expects a slide from 127.4 pts to 126.5 pts.
9:40 pm BST - API Crude Oil Inventories. Oil prices continue to recover after significant decline was made throughout the summer period. Both Brent and WTI are approaching swing levels lying not far away from this year’s highs. After significant drop signalled by API was confirmed by DOE reading last week investors may pay bigger attention to the former. Markets expect today’s API reading to show a 1 million barrel increase. What’s interesting and quite unusual the consensus for tomorrow’s DOE report is exactly the same.
Central bank speakers scheduled for today:
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12:00 pm BST - ECB’s Praet
OIL.WTI is approaching the resistance zone ranging $69.50-70.40 that saw some price action this year. The oil inventories data may set the tone for the reaction to the aforementioned supply zone. Source: xStation5
