Summary:
- Canadian retail sales for October to draw attention this afternoon
- US personal spending and income for November
- Final GDP releases from the US and the UK plus a final UoM for December
9:00 am GMT - Poland’s retail sales for November: Industrial output surprised to the upside despite a mere 1.4% YoY increase in November, and this is especially true when we take into account negative calendar effects. Therefore, there is some risk today's retail sales might beat expectations too with the consensus at 3.9% YoY in real terms.
9:30 am GMT - UK final GDP for Q3: The consensus points to a 1% YoY increase, unchanged compared to the earlier reading.
1:30 pm GMT - US final GDP for Q3: The consensus points to a 2.1% QoQ annualized increase, unchanged compared to the earlier reading.
1:30 pm GMT - Canadian retail sales for October: The Canadian dollar has had the best performance against the US dollar in G10 so far this year with almost a 4% return (it’s been even more impressive when a total return is taken into consideration). Moreover, the CAD is seen by some market pundits as a candidate to continue its performance next year. In order to do so, the BoC cannot cut rates, hence it implies data need to stay strong. Another test comes this afternoon as retail sales for October will be released. The consensus points to a 0.2% MoM increase in real terms.
3:00 pm GMT - US personal spending and income for November: Those readings are always worth looking at because they can tell us a lot about consumers’ capacity to boost spending and thereby support economic growth. Personal income is expected to have grown 0.3% MoM while personal spending is forecast to have increased 0.4% MoM.
3:00 pm GMT - US final University of Michigan index for December: The final reading is not expected to show any changes compared to the preliminary print, hence the index ought to remain at 99.2.
Central bankers’ speeches:
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11:00 am GMT - BoE’s Haskel
