Summary:
- Third release of the US GDP report for Q4 2018
- CPI inflation data from the euro area member countries
- Interest rate decisions to be announced in Czech Republic, Mexico and South Africa
While the majority of macroeconomic readings scheduled for release today seldom causes wild swings on the markets, they may provide a decent update on the state of the US or euro area economies. Apart from that, three central banks are set to announce their decision today. Last but not least, a vast array of the European and US central bankers will deliver speeches throughout the day.
CPI inflation data from EU member countries
The preliminary CPI inflation print from the euro area is scheduled to be released tomorrow at 10:00 am GMT. However, investors may try to assess the outcome of this reading using today’s data from member countries. Spanish inflation (8:00 am GMT) is seen accelerating from 1.1% YoY to 1.6% YoY. Data from Germany will be released 5 hours later at 1:00 pm GMT. The headline gauge is expected to stay unchanged at 1.5% YoY. One should be aware that major price moves are unlikely to occur in the aftermath of these releases.
Data from the United States
A few readings from the US are scheduled for today. Third GDP reading for the final quarter of 2018 will be released at 12:30 pm GMT. Key measures should not deviate much from the previous readings but any subsequent reading offers more actual data and less estimates. Having said that, investors may use today’s report to update their analyses and views. Simultaneously, initial jobless claims data will be released and it is expected to come in at 225k. Pending home sales for February data is set to be published at 2:00 pm GMT and it should show a minor advance of 0.5% MoM. The US housing market data released earlier this week was a huge disappointment and another lacklustre print could raise questions.
Interest rate decisions
Czech National Bank and Bank of Mexico are scheduled to announce their interest rate decision at, respectively, 12:00 pm GMT and 7:00 pm GMT. When it comes to the former we may get a somewhat dovish message. The Czech National Bank raised rates five times last year and recently some policymakers hinted that the economy could actually use weaker currency to mitigate negative impact of the global slowdown. Mexican central bankers are also expected to strike a dovish tone after the Federal Reserve did so earlier this month. Apart from that, the South African Reserve Bank is also expected to announce its rate decision today but exact timing is unknown. In all three cases interest rates are expected to remain unchanged.
Central bank speakers scheduled for today:
- 9:10 am GMT - ECB’s de Guindos
- 11:15 am GMT - Fed’s Quarles
- 12:00 pm GMT - ECB’s Knot
- 12:40 pm GMT - ECB’s de Galhau
- 1:30 pm GMT - Fed’s Clarida
- 2:00 pm GMT - Fed’s Bowman
- 3:30 pm GMT - Fed’s Bostic
- 3:45 pm GMT - Riksbank’s Skingsley
- 5:00 pm GMT - SNB’s Maechler
- 5:15 pm GMT - Fed’s Williams
- 9:20 pm GMT - Fed’s Bullard
EURCZK has been trading within a kind of uptrend since early-February 2018. The pair broke above the 200-session moving average yesterday and is testing the upper limit of the resistance zone ranging 25.72-25.76. In case bulls managed to surpass this hurdle as well, the way towards latest local high at 25.84 would be left open. Source: xStation5
