Árupicai Összesítő: Olaj, ezüst, földgáz, búza (Angol hír)

Oil:

• Goldman Sachs points out that the scenario of significantly higher oil prices still lingers

• GS points out that low prices are the result of extremely low involvement of traders in fear of factors such as an economic slowdown around the world or another wave of coronavirus in China

• Another factor that keeps prices lower is the release of strategic reserves in the US, which is expected to end in October

• GS points out that prices will rise significantly above the current forward prices. The forecast for Q3-Q4 is $ 110-125 against the earlier forecast of $ 130-140 per barrel. The forecast for 2023 remains unchanged at $ 125 a barrel

• The latest EIA STEO report indicates that production will increase next year by 800,000 barrels per day. However, major oil companies currently record the lowest share of investments in relation to dividends and share buyback in many years, which shows that the oil market is underinvested

• The same is indicated by OPEC, which believes that the production capacity will be insufficient in the next two years

• That is why the Goldman Sachs scenario is probable, although, of course, a very sharp recession will completely change the situation​​​​​​​

Brent is testing local lows from the first half of July. It is worth noting, however, that price is breaking the post-pandemic trend line. Key support lies at $ 85.00 per barrel where local highs from October 2021 are located. In November 2021, the trendline broke, but the decline accounted only to $7.0 (also due to the release of reserves). If history were to repeat itself, another upward move could be launched from $ 85.00 level. However, in case of major recession, the price could fall to the $ 65-75 per barrel range. Source: xStation5

Silver:

• Silver reached a very important area from the technical point of view. Price is testing the 50-day average and the upper limit of the 1:1 structure

• The current situation still resembles the beginning of 2021 - after breaking the death cross, rebound occurred after 1 month and 20 days ( similar to current situation)

• Back then price broke above the 50-day average and next reached the 200-day average. If history were to repeat itself, price could increase 10-12% from current levels 

• Positioning rebounds, seasonality indicates that the next few weeks should be stable

• Of course, silver may be weighed down by higher yields and a stronger dollar, but after the recent rise in expectations for hikes, silver not only remained stable, but also began to move higher.

• Inflation expectations in the US are falling, next year it is expected to be around 6%​​​​​​​

Silver is in a very interesting technical place. If price breaks above the 50-day moving average, the upward potential may be as high as 10-12%. However, silver would have to climb all the way to $ 22.3 an ounce in order to negate the downward sequence. Source: xStation5

Natural gas:

• The soap opera regarding the NS1 turbine is still going on. However, Gazprom does not want to use other gas pipelines on the continent to compensate for the lower gas transfer via NS1

• Siemens also reports that it has not supplied any turbines to the NS2

• Germany rejects the possibility of starting NS2 operations

• Prices in Europe, however, slightly fell to EUR 180 / MWh, but they will certainly increase during the start of the heating season

• At the moment, warehouses in Europe reached 72% capacity, in line with the 5-year average. However, Europe need to find a way to secure transfers during the heating season

• In the US, meanwhile, lower temperatures lead to reduction of  gas consumption, so the upcoming EIA inventory report may bring a negative surprise to prices

• Nevertheless, in the medium term, the trend will remain upward and inventories will remain low

• The current price pullback is only temporary. Prices should not fall below $ 6 / MMBTU level ahead of the heating season

• The Freeport export terminal will be brought back into operation in October at the earliest, so the build-up of inventories by then may be slightly higher

Price may be under pressure in the near term, but at the same time investors should keep in mind that the Freeport export terminal may resume operation from October, which will reduce US gas replenishment. Source: xStation5

Warehouses in Europe are 72% full. Source: Bloomberg

Wheat:

• It was the worst winter wheat season in the US in at least 5 years when it comes to harvest. The poor quality of the crops is mainly due to the lack of rainfall

• The quality of spring wheat is similar to  recent years, however the growth rate still leaves much to be desired

• The 5-year average and the previous year indicate that the spring wheat harvest should already start, but taking into account the weather, quality and amount of wheat may not be the best

• Recent drop in prices was caused by the resumption of wheat exports from Ukraine. It is worth noting, however, that this agreement is very "shaky", and the harvest in Ukraine will still be very small

• In some regions, there is not enough manpower and equipment, while in some places hostilities are still ongoing

• FAO warns that food prices may rise in the near future

The quality of the crops is low and the harvest has not yet started. Source: USDA

Wheat prices have fallen to levels last seen during the fall and winter consolidation. However, production costs remain high and supply remains at risk, so there is a possibility that price may return to 1,000 cents a bushel. Source: xStation5