Árupicai Összesítő: - Réz, Arany Olaj, Szójabab (Angol hír)

Copper:

• Copper price breaches USD 6600 per ton, the highest level in the last two years
• The correlation between copper and credit impulse in China (18 months lead) indicates that the price of copper may be heading for a local high, but in the long run copper prices may also continue to increase
• The rebound of copper prices after the previous financial crisis suggests that the price of copper may rise at least to around USD 7,000 per ton
• However, copper has risen slightly higher than the short-term fundamentals would suggest. Global inventories are consolidating, while inventories in Shanghai are rebounding for the second week in a row
• If copper is used excessively to secure loans in China, as it was in 2014, this may be a warning signal for the price

Credit impulse in China suggests that copper prices will rise in the coming months. The latest infrastructure support program worth billions yuan should generate an increase in demand for copper. Source: Bloomberg, XTB

Copper inventories in Shanghai are starting to recover. Inventories on the most important global stock exchanges are consolidating. However, copper has moved too far in comparison to short-term fundamental factors (inverted price axis). Source: Bloomberg

Gold:

• Bloomberg indicates that gold is overvalued as a raw material, but is relatively cheap when looking at gold as a currency
• According to the Bloomberg statistical model, price of gold should fall below USD 1,700 per ounce
• Gold is slightly overvalued relative to the emerging markets  (MSCI EM)
• However, central bank balance sheets indicate that gold is generally cheap in the long run and has growth prospects
• ETFs continue to buy gold. Long and short positioning are rebouncing, which means that speculators return to the market

Gold is overvalued when looking at inflation, valuations relative to other assets, or statistical models. On the other hand, gold is cheap when viewed as currency. Moreover, most factors show that gold is still far from its historical highs. Source: Bloomberg

The share of gold in central banks' balance sheets is low compared to the last financial crisis. This shows that gold in the long run is really cheap considering the huge amount of cash which is available on the market. Source: Bloomberg

ETFs buy gold, speculators are increasingly active on the market. Source: Bloomberg

Oil:

• Oil remains below an important resistance level: USD 41 for WTI and USD 45 for Brent
• Iraq and Nigeria achieved much lower compliance of the agreed output cut,
• On Wednesday, July 15, OPEC + will meet online to consider extending strong production cuts (nearly 10 million barrels per day). The market expects, however, that OPEC will abandon this idea and from August production will be reduced to 8 million barrels per day
• The market is afraid that demand will no longer strongly rebound in the following months, which may lead to market stagnation
• Bloomberg indicates that after a rebound in Q3, both demand and supply will stabilize. 
• The model based on marginal costs of production with a forecast of demand at the end of the year indicates that the price of oil should rise to around USD 45-50 per barrel
• Oil imports by China in June amounted to 11.4 million barrels per day and were 17% higher compared to March due to increased industrial activity and filling of the strategic reserves. China is expected to reduce its oil imports in the coming months. At the same time, oil demand in Japan or Korea fell to the lowest level in several months (according to Bloomberg data)
• China is currently responsible for an approximate 46% increase in oil demand

Supply and demand are expected to stabilize in the second half of the year. Based on marginal costs of extraction, the price of oil should rise to around USD 45-50 per barrel. In the short term, however, a fall in prices is possible if inventory levels will continues to increase globally and in the US. Source: Bloomberg

Asia is responsible for more than 3/4 of the increase in global oil demand. Source: Bloomberg

Soy:

• Soybean prices are continuing to decline, which may be associated with increased tensions between the US and China
• A recent WASDE monthly report showed that soybean inventories increased significantly, above market expectations
• Soybean prices should continue to fall according to seasonality
• Soy remains heavily overbought looking at the COT report (bottom of the chart on xStation5)
• Interestingly, the price of soy fell on Monday, even despite a report indicating a decline in US crop quality (from 71% to 68%)

A recent WASDE report showed inventory growth compare to the previous estimates. Source: Bloomberg

The price of soy has dropped considerably recently. The seasonality indicator shows further declines. Positioning indicates that soy is overbought. Source: xStation5