Market wrap: AI CAPEX loses its shine?🚩 Alphabet and Tesla weigh on global markets (23.07.2026)

U.S. index futures and European equities are trading under pressure following earnings from Alphabet and Tesla. Investors are increasingly questioning whether record-breaking spending on artificial intelligence will generate sufficiently attractive returns. Just a few months ago, rising capital expenditure (CAPEX) was widely viewed as a strong bullish signal for AI-related companies. Today, it is becoming a growing source of concern.

Investors begin questioning massive AI CAPEX

Alphabet announced plans to invest as much as $205 billion in capital expenditures in 2026, up from its previous guidance of $190 billion. Meanwhile, following Tesla's earnings release, Elon Musk stated that the company should continue investing in AI infrastructure "as fast as we can without it being too wasteful."

Only months ago, such announcements would have reinforced the narrative of an accelerating AI revolution and fueled gains across technology stocks. Today, however, investors are asking a different question: are hyperscalers engaged in an expensive arms race that could ultimately reduce returns across the entire sector?

Technology stocks drag global indices lower

The weaker sentiment surrounding the world's largest technology companies has quickly spilled over into broader equity markets.

S&P 500 futures are down about 0.4%, while Dow Jones futures are losing around 0.5%. In Europe, the Stoxx Europe 600 declines 0.8%, Germany's DAX falls 0.8%, and France's CAC 40 loses roughly 1%. The biggest loser of the session is STMicroelectronics, with shares falling nearly 15% following quarterly earnings, while Dassault Aviation gains more than 8% after reporting strong results.

At the same time, the U.S. dollar remains relatively stable, while Brent and WTI crude oil prices are both rising by more than 3%, adding to inflation concerns and increasing cost pressures for businesses.

EU50 and DE40 outlook

Euro Stoxx 50 (EU50)

The Euro Stoxx 50 futures contract is trading slightly lower today but remains near the upper boundary of its rising price channel. The 200-day exponential moving average (EMA200) is currently located around 5,900 points, while a decline below 5,800 points remains a realistic downside scenario should selling pressure intensify. The next major resistance level is located near 6,500 points.

Source: xStation5

DAX (DE40)

The DAX futures contract has once again slipped below its 50-day exponential moving average (EMA50), highlighted by the orange line, suggesting that sellers are attempting to regain control of the market despite relatively light selling volume.

Source: xStation5

AI enters a new valuation phase

An increasing number of investors believe that the period of unconditional enthusiasm surrounding artificial intelligence may be coming to an end. After months of exceptionally strong inflows into semiconductor stocks, funds are beginning to reduce their exposure to the sector.

This does not necessarily signal the end of the AI bull market. Instead, it suggests that investors are changing the way they value AI companies. Markets are no longer rewarding higher capital spending alone—they increasingly expect proof that billions of dollars invested in data centers, AI chips, and computing infrastructure will translate into higher earnings, stronger cash flows, and sustainable competitive advantages.

As a result, for companies such as Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and Tesla, the key question is no longer "How much are they spending on AI?" but rather "What return will those investments generate?" That is likely to become one of the defining investment themes for the technology sector over the coming quarters.

Company news

• SK Hynix capped the amount of its South Korea-listed shares that can be converted into U.S.-listed ADRs at 2.5% of total shares outstanding.
• BNP Paribas reported second-quarter revenue and profit above Wall Street expectations.
• UniCredit said it is likely to assume control of Commerzbank as CEO Andrea Orcel moves closer to completing one of Europe's largest banking deals.
• TotalEnergies reported higher second-quarter profit, supported by stronger crude oil and refined product prices, although earnings from its gas business declined.
• Nestlé agreed to sell a 50% stake in its bottled water business to Platinum Equity for approximately €3 billion ($3.4 billion) as part of its portfolio optimization strategy.

Biggest movers in Europe

• Segro (+4.9%) – Prologis confirmed its interest in a potential £14 billion takeover.
• Nokia (+4.2%) – The company issued stronger-than-expected guidance, supported by growing demand from data centers.
• Sartorius (+4.0%) – Adjusted first-half EBITDA met market expectations.
• argenx (+3.6%) – Second-quarter operating income exceeded analyst forecasts.
• Dassault Systèmes (+2.3%) – The company expects third-quarter non-IFRS revenue growth of 3-5% at constant exchange rates.
• BE Semiconductor (+2.0%) – The chip equipment manufacturer expects third-quarter gross margin of 63-65%, broadly in line with the 64.9% consensus.
• Daimler Truck (+1.2%) – Raised its outlook for improvements in its North American business.
• Fuchs (+1.0%) – Shares posted modest gains following earnings.
• Deutsche Boerse (-1.4%) – Second-quarter EBITDA beat expectations, while the company raised its treasury income outlook.
• Var Energi (-2.3%) – RBC downgraded its sector recommendation, maintaining a NOK 55 price target.
• Moncler (-4.0%) – Second-quarter revenue came in broadly in line with market expectations.
• STMicroelectronics (-5.9%) – The company projected stronger revenue growth supported by AI demand, but investors reacted negatively to the results.

STMicroelectronics chart (D1)

Shares of the leading European semiconductor manufacturer are falling back to levels last seen in May this year. Previously, the stock found significant price support around €50, a level that also acted as a consolidation zone during the market highs in 2023.

Source: xStation5