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The US government shutdown has not derailed Wall Street, with major indices continuing to climb and the Nasdaq 100 reaching new all-time highs.
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Momentum in the technology sector is driven by artificial intelligence, with supply-chain partnerships and speculation about a potential OpenAI IPO providing additional fuel.
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The earnings season is beginning, with early results such as PepsiCo on Nasdaq setting the tone for the coming weeks.
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Gold has rallied strongly this year, gaining nearly 50 percent, supported by geopolitical tensions, uncertainty over Fed policy, and the effects of the shutdown.
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Key upcoming events for gold include the release of the FOMC Minutes next Wednesday and US consumer sentiment data on Friday.
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Political changes in Japan and the possibility of a Bank of Japan rate hike—currently priced with more than 50 percent probability for October—are driving volatility in USDJPY.
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Japanese macroeconomic releases, including consumer spending and producer price inflation, together with the Fed Minutes, will be critical for currency market direction next week.
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The US government shutdown has not derailed Wall Street, with major indices continuing to climb and the Nasdaq 100 reaching new all-time highs.
-
Momentum in the technology sector is driven by artificial intelligence, with supply-chain partnerships and speculation about a potential OpenAI IPO providing additional fuel.
-
The earnings season is beginning, with early results such as PepsiCo on Nasdaq setting the tone for the coming weeks.
-
Gold has rallied strongly this year, gaining nearly 50 percent, supported by geopolitical tensions, uncertainty over Fed policy, and the effects of the shutdown.
-
Key upcoming events for gold include the release of the FOMC Minutes next Wednesday and US consumer sentiment data on Friday.
-
Political changes in Japan and the possibility of a Bank of Japan rate hike—currently priced with more than 50 percent probability for October—are driving volatility in USDJPY.
-
Japanese macroeconomic releases, including consumer spending and producer price inflation, together with the Fed Minutes, will be critical for currency market direction next week.
The US government shutdown has now become a reality, though history shows that such events rarely pose a major obstacle for American equities. This time is no different: Wall Street’s main indices continue to climb, reaching new record highs. The shutdown does, however, limit the flow of economic data, reducing visibility on the state of the US economy. Still, this does not mean a lack of market-moving events: the earnings season is gradually beginning, and next Wednesday the release of the latest FOMC Minutes will draw investor attention. Against this backdrop, the week ahead places a spotlight on markets such as US100, GOLD, and USDJPY.
US100
The federal shutdown has not cooled investor appetite for US equities. The Nasdaq 100 (US100) futures have already broken above 25,000 points, extending their longest winning streak since June. Gains across the indices, particularly in technology, are being fuelled by ongoing news of collaborations across the artificial intelligence supply chain. Notably, OpenAI has now become the world’s most valuable private company with an estimated valuation of $500 billion. Speculation around a potential IPO persists, while trading in private-company shares is increasingly facilitated by blockchain technology. At the same time, earnings season is getting underway. While PepsiCo can hardly be called a technology company, it is Nasdaq-listed and its results will set an early tone.
GOLD
The government shutdown, uncertainty over the Fed’s future policy path, and heightened geopolitical tensions are the key drivers behind the sharp rally in gold. The metal has already gained nearly 50% this year, and many market analysts suggest that reaching $4,000 per ounce is only a matter of time. For gold traders, the main event next week will be Wednesday’s release of the FOMC Minutes. On Friday, attention will also turn to US consumer sentiment data from the University of Michigan.
USDJPY
Political changes at home are rarely welcomed by currency markets. Japan’s new LDP leader faces the daunting task of reviving the image of a struggling party, and the outcome of last weekend’s party elections is already visible in financial markets. Recently, several signals have emerged that the Bank of Japan is preparing to raise interest rates, with the probability of such a move by late October currently priced at above 50%. In the coming week, key releases to watch include consumer spending on Tuesday and producer price inflation on Friday. Next Wednesday, the release of the FOMC Minutes will also be critical, offering clues as to whether Fed officials are prepared to deliver another rate cut in the US by the end of the month.
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