- Ifo Business Climate for October: 88.4 (forecast: 88.0; prior: 87.7)
- Ifo expectations: 91.6 (forecast: 90.0; prior: 89.7)
- Ifo current assessment: 85.3 (86.0; prior: 85.7)
The German Ifo Business Climate Index for October shows a moderate overall improvement to 88.4, slightly beating forecasts. This rise was driven entirely by the Expectations Index, which jumped significantly to 91.6, its highest level since 2022 and well above the 90.0 forecast. This signals that businesses are optimistic about a future economic pickup into the new year, bolstering hopes of emerging from contraction. However, the Current Assessment Index fell to 85.3, showing that businesses found the current situation slightly worse in October. The divergence may mean that businesses acknowledged a slight slump in the present, but their outlook for the future (Q4 and into the new year) improved substantially. The optimistic outlook is likely supported by massive public infrastructure and defense spending. Moreover, energy costs are low and low interest rate levels should encourage business to increase investments.
DE40 continues its sell-off from the start of the session, despite good market sentiment related to upcoming talks between Trump and Xi later this week.
Chart of the day: JP225 (27.10.2025)
Economic calendar: Fed’s interest-rate decision on Wednesday 📄
Morning wrap (27.10.2025)
Daily Summary: CPI down, Markets Up
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