- EUR/USD gains 0.15% to around 1.16995, driven by political stability improvements in France and US dollar weakness amid banking sector worries in the US.
- Dollar pressure rises due to problems in regional US banks and the prolonged US government shutdown, boosting expectations of further Fed rate cuts.
- EUR/USD gains 0.15% to around 1.16995, driven by political stability improvements in France and US dollar weakness amid banking sector worries in the US.
- Dollar pressure rises due to problems in regional US banks and the prolonged US government shutdown, boosting expectations of further Fed rate cuts.
EUR/USD rises 0.15% to around 1.16995, supported by improving political conditions in France and weakness in the US dollar amid concerns over the US banking sector. Since the beginning of the week, the pair has gained, with investors closely monitoring upcoming European data and the planned meeting between the US and Russian presidents, which could impact market sentiment.
Source: xStation5
What is driving today’s EUR/USD movement?
- The US dollar is weakening under growing pressure from concerns about the stability of the US banking sector. Problems at two regional banks — Zions Bancorporation and Western Alliance Bancorp — which reported serious issues related to loan fraud, have sparked market worries about the health of the entire financial sector. This, in turn, raises the risk of contagion to the broader credit market, which has recently been operating with unusually tight spreads.
- As a result, expectations are increasing that the Federal Reserve may need to ease monetary policy further by cutting interest rates to support the economy and stabilize the banking sector. These expectations weigh negatively on the dollar, causing it to lose ground against major currencies.
- The ongoing US government shutdown and lack of key economic data releases are adding further pressure on the dollar, weakening its position in the FX market.
- The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the greenback against a basket of six other G10 currencies, is down 0.1%, heading toward its largest weekly loss since late July. This trend reflects growing investor concerns about the US economic outlook and its implications for Fed policy.
- Political stability in France has improved after Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu survived a second vote of no confidence, reducing political risk in the region.
- An important factor influencing the market is the upcoming meeting between the US and Russian presidents, scheduled for the next few weeks. This event is drawing significant market attention because a potential agreement between these two powers could materially affect geopolitical developments, especially in the context of the ongoing war in Ukraine.
- Final inflation data for September in the Eurozone were released today. The annual CPI remained steady at 2.2%, in line with forecasts, while core inflation slightly exceeded expectations at 2.4% year-on-year versus the predicted 2.3%. Monthly figures also showed a moderate rise in prices. These results confirm that the European Central Bank is likely to keep its current monetary policy unchanged at least through the end of the year.
- This publication is significant for the EUR/USD exchange rate as it shapes market expectations regarding future ECB decisions and may support the euro amid rising global market uncertainty.
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