EUR/USD is in focus today ahead of the US CPI release scheduled for 14:30 Polish time. The market expects inflation to accelerate to 3.6% y/y from 3.4% previously and to 0.6% m/m from 0.4% previously. Higher gasoline prices may push up the September headline reading, although underlying inflationary pressures excluding food and energy are expected to show signs of moderation.
- In an extreme scenario that could support a renewed pullback in EUR/USD, we would expect higher-than-forecast readings for both headline and core CPI. Such an outcome would suggest that inflationary pressures are gradually broadening beyond volatile energy and food prices.
- On the other hand, CPI readings in line with or below expectations, accompanied by relatively subdued core inflation, could provide an interesting backdrop for a rebound in EUR/USD and potentially push market expectations for US rate hikes from 2026 into 2027.
EUR/USD chart (H1, D1 intervals)
EUR/USD is currently trading at its lowest levels since late spring 2025, although the pair has started to stabilize around 1.12. We can also see the RSI beginning to rebound from oversold territory and approaching 33, while a potentially bullish moving-average crossover is forming on the MACD. The key short-term resistance may be around 1.135, defined by recent price reactions in this area, while the nearest support is located around 1.114.
Source: XTB
The importance of the 1.135 resistance area is also reinforced by the fact that it corresponds to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the downward wave that began in late summer this year. Price reactions may also emerge around 1.128 along the way, although it is worth stressing that a rebound is by no means guaranteed. A move back toward 1.114 could potentially open the way for EUR/USD to decline toward the 1.10 area.
Source: XTB
Economic Calendar: US CPI Inflation Data in Focus (14.10.2026)
Daily Summary: Earnings Season Kicks Off on Wall Street Amid Mixed Sentiment
Market Wrap: European Stocks Rise as Banks Beat Earnings Expectations
🚩 US100 loses 0.7%
The content of this report has been created by XTB S.A., with its registered office in Warsaw, at Prosta 67, 00-838 Warsaw, Poland, (KRS number 0000217580) and supervised by Polish Supervision Authority ( No. DDM-M-4021-57-1/2005). This material is a marketing communication within the meaning of Art. 24 (3) of Directive 2014/65/EU of the European Parliament and of the Council of 15 May 2014 on markets in financial instruments and amending Directive 2002/92/EC and Directive 2011/61/EU (MiFID II). Marketing communication is not an investment recommendation or information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy within the meaning of Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 16 April 2014 on market abuse (market abuse regulation) and repealing Directive 2003/6/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council and Commission Directives 2003/124/EC, 2003/125/EC and 2004/72/EC and Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2016/958 of 9 March 2016 supplementing Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 of the European Parliament and of the Council with regard to regulatory technical standards for the technical arrangements for objective presentation of investment recommendations or other information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy and for disclosure of particular interests or indications of conflicts of interest or any other advice, including in the area of investment advisory, within the meaning of the Trading in Financial Instruments Act of 29 July 2005 (i.e. Journal of Laws 2019, item 875, as amended). The marketing communication is prepared with the highest diligence, objectivity, presents the facts known to the author on the date of preparation and is devoid of any evaluation elements. The marketing communication is prepared without considering the client’s needs, his individual financial situation and does not present any investment strategy in any way. The marketing communication does not constitute an offer of sale, offering, subscription, invitation to purchase, advertisement or promotion of any financial instruments. XTB S.A. is not liable for any client’s actions or omissions, in particular for the acquisition or disposal of financial instruments, undertaken on the basis of the information contained in this marketing communication. In the event that the marketing communication contains any information about any results regarding the financial instruments indicated therein, these do not constitute any guarantee or forecast regarding the future results.