Gold prices surged to new record highs on Friday, with spot gold jumping more than 1% to $3,207.20 an ounce as escalating US-China trade tensions drive investors toward safe-haven assets.
Trade War Fuels Record Rally
Start investing today or test a free demo
Create account Try a demo Download mobile app Download mobile appThe precious metal has seen stellar gains this week as President Trump imposed 145% tariffs on Chinese goods, while China retaliated with 84% duties. This bitter exchange has triggered significant market volatility, with investors abandoning risk assets and US Treasuries in favor of traditional safe havens. Gold futures for June delivery soared 1.7% to $3,231.69/oz, extending the metal's impressive 20% year-to-date gain.
Dollar Weakness Amplifies Gains
Softer-than-expected US inflation data has weakened the dollar and increased expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025. This currency weakness, combined with the Fed's dovish outlook against a backdrop of rising trade tensions, has created ideal conditions for gold's ascent. The SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) posted its largest single-day percentage increase since October 2023, jumping 2.8% to $282.82.
The market is pricing in three rate cuts in the U.S., with a 50% probability of a fourth. Source: Bloomberg L.P.
Central Bank Buying Supporting Prices
While inflation concerns and geopolitical uncertainty traditionally drive gold prices, analysts at BofA Securities note that central bank purchases have emerged as the primary catalyst in the current rally. This institutional buying, coupled with increased inflows into physical gold-backed ETFs, reflects growing concerns about US economic policies and potential challenges to the dollar's reserve currency status.
Gold mining stocks have outperformed even the metal itself, with Agnico Eagle Mines up 35%, Newmont rising 29%, and Barrick Gold gaining 21% in 2025 as investors seek exposure to operational leverage amid the bullion price surge.
Gold (D1)
Gold is currently trading at an all-time high around $3,200. Bears may attempt to retest the previous high near $3,140, with a possible move toward the 30-day SMA. The RSI is on track to form a bearish divergence, showing a lower high while price makes a higher high. Meanwhile, the MACD remains tight following a recent bullish crossover.
The content of this report has been created by XTB S.A., with its registered office in Warsaw, at Prosta 67, 00-838 Warsaw, Poland, (KRS number 0000217580) and supervised by Polish Supervision Authority ( No. DDM-M-4021-57-1/2005). This material is a marketing communication within the meaning of Art. 24 (3) of Directive 2014/65/EU of the European Parliament and of the Council of 15 May 2014 on markets in financial instruments and amending Directive 2002/92/EC and Directive 2011/61/EU (MiFID II). Marketing communication is not an investment recommendation or information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy within the meaning of Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 16 April 2014 on market abuse (market abuse regulation) and repealing Directive 2003/6/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council and Commission Directives 2003/124/EC, 2003/125/EC and 2004/72/EC and Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2016/958 of 9 March 2016 supplementing Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 of the European Parliament and of the Council with regard to regulatory technical standards for the technical arrangements for objective presentation of investment recommendations or other information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy and for disclosure of particular interests or indications of conflicts of interest or any other advice, including in the area of investment advisory, within the meaning of the Trading in Financial Instruments Act of 29 July 2005 (i.e. Journal of Laws 2019, item 875, as amended). The marketing communication is prepared with the highest diligence, objectivity, presents the facts known to the author on the date of preparation and is devoid of any evaluation elements. The marketing communication is prepared without considering the client’s needs, his individual financial situation and does not present any investment strategy in any way. The marketing communication does not constitute an offer of sale, offering, subscription, invitation to purchase, advertisement or promotion of any financial instruments. XTB S.A. is not liable for any client’s actions or omissions, in particular for the acquisition or disposal of financial instruments, undertaken on the basis of the information contained in this marketing communication. In the event that the marketing communication contains any information about any results regarding the financial instruments indicated therein, these do not constitute any guarantee or forecast regarding the future results.
