Following Monday's improvement in market sentiment, which brought a substantial decline in energy commodity prices, we are observing a partial reversal driven by reports of a strike by US forces on facilities located in southern Iran, likely near Bandar Abbas. WTI crude oil is up by approximately 1.4% in morning trading.
Negotiations between the US and Iran are expected to continue, which is limiting the scale of the declines. The parties are reportedly focusing solely on the "appropriate language" to be used in the final agreement between Washington and Tehran.
Investors are eagerly awaiting further information that could confirm or refute the thesis that the negotiating gaps between the parties are narrowing. At this moment, we are only receiving signals regarding the continued shelling of Lebanon by Israel, which certainly does not fill the markets with optimism.
Chart 1: OIL.WTI (24.07.2024 - 25.05.2026)
Source: xStation, 25.05.2026
Currently, the market is in a deeper correction phase after reaching local highs. Recent candlesticks indicate selling pressure. $90 serves as both the nearest support level and a key psychological barrier. Defending it is crucial for the bulls. The next key support level is located at $85. Dynamic resistance is currently provided by the descending blue moving average (SMA 50).
- Fibonacci retracements: A drop below 38.2% and a daily candle close below this mark is a classic technical signal suggesting further declines towards the 50% retracement (which coincides with the aforementioned support at $85).
- Moving Averages: The price has fallen below the shorter-term averages (including the blue SMA 50), confirming a short-term shift to bearish sentiment. The long-term average (the red SMA 100 line) is still sloping upwards and sits below the current price, confirming that in the long-term horizon, the uptrend has not yet been negated.
Macro Calendar: Geopolitics in focus (25.05.2026)
Morning Wrap: US strikes Iran – what’s next for the negotiations? (25.05.2026)
Daily Summary: Peace Optimism Drives Strong Rally Across Global Markets
US–Iran Peace Under a Chinese Umbrella?
The content of this report has been created by XTB S.A., with its registered office in Warsaw, at Prosta 67, 00-838 Warsaw, Poland, (KRS number 0000217580) and supervised by Polish Supervision Authority ( No. DDM-M-4021-57-1/2005). This material is a marketing communication within the meaning of Art. 24 (3) of Directive 2014/65/EU of the European Parliament and of the Council of 15 May 2014 on markets in financial instruments and amending Directive 2002/92/EC and Directive 2011/61/EU (MiFID II). Marketing communication is not an investment recommendation or information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy within the meaning of Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 16 April 2014 on market abuse (market abuse regulation) and repealing Directive 2003/6/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council and Commission Directives 2003/124/EC, 2003/125/EC and 2004/72/EC and Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2016/958 of 9 March 2016 supplementing Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 of the European Parliament and of the Council with regard to regulatory technical standards for the technical arrangements for objective presentation of investment recommendations or other information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy and for disclosure of particular interests or indications of conflicts of interest or any other advice, including in the area of investment advisory, within the meaning of the Trading in Financial Instruments Act of 29 July 2005 (i.e. Journal of Laws 2019, item 875, as amended). The marketing communication is prepared with the highest diligence, objectivity, presents the facts known to the author on the date of preparation and is devoid of any evaluation elements. The marketing communication is prepared without considering the client’s needs, his individual financial situation and does not present any investment strategy in any way. The marketing communication does not constitute an offer of sale, offering, subscription, invitation to purchase, advertisement or promotion of any financial instruments. XTB S.A. is not liable for any client’s actions or omissions, in particular for the acquisition or disposal of financial instruments, undertaken on the basis of the information contained in this marketing communication. In the event that the marketing communication contains any information about any results regarding the financial instruments indicated therein, these do not constitute any guarantee or forecast regarding the future results.
