CBOE VIX futures are rising nearly 2.5% today amid renewed declines on Wall Street and gains in oil (OIL), which has once again moved above the $100 per barrel level. Intraday market volatility has rarely been this elevated in recent quarters. Investor uncertainty remains exceptionally high.
- Intraday volatility of VIX futures has climbed to its highest level in six months. This indicator measures price fluctuations within a single trading day using 15-minute intervals. The current level is around four times higher than the average, which is typically observed during periods of intense market panic.
- At the same time, implied volatility for the S&P 500, reflecting the expected daily move of the index, has increased to around 1.77%, the highest level since April 2025. Over the past three months, there have been only two sessions with moves greater than 1.75%. This suggests that futures and options markets are pricing in significantly more volatility than the S&P 500 is actually experiencing.
VIX (D1 timeframe)
The VIX volatility index is resuming its upward movement and has once again reacted to support near the lower boundary of the ascending trend line. A move above 26 could increase the likelihood of a rise toward 28, which marks the upper boundary of the upward channel that VIX already broke out from last week. If upward momentum builds again, the move could be stronger and extend beyond the 30 level.
Source: xStation5
Looking at the dynamics of the spot VIX index, similar historical spikes in volatility have often coincided with buying opportunities for the S&P 500 over a three-month horizon. Exceptions include February 2020 and December 2021.
Source: SubuTrade
Consumer sentiments fall in Germany and France amid rising energy prices
Morning wrap: Stock market indices slide as oil jumps to $100 again (26.03.2026)
Daily Summary: Iran Uninterested in Trump’s Peace Plan
Rivian - Partnership with Uber and the R2. Is it a "Tesla killer"?
The content of this report has been created by XTB S.A., with its registered office in Warsaw, at Prosta 67, 00-838 Warsaw, Poland, (KRS number 0000217580) and supervised by Polish Supervision Authority ( No. DDM-M-4021-57-1/2005). This material is a marketing communication within the meaning of Art. 24 (3) of Directive 2014/65/EU of the European Parliament and of the Council of 15 May 2014 on markets in financial instruments and amending Directive 2002/92/EC and Directive 2011/61/EU (MiFID II). Marketing communication is not an investment recommendation or information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy within the meaning of Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 16 April 2014 on market abuse (market abuse regulation) and repealing Directive 2003/6/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council and Commission Directives 2003/124/EC, 2003/125/EC and 2004/72/EC and Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2016/958 of 9 March 2016 supplementing Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 of the European Parliament and of the Council with regard to regulatory technical standards for the technical arrangements for objective presentation of investment recommendations or other information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy and for disclosure of particular interests or indications of conflicts of interest or any other advice, including in the area of investment advisory, within the meaning of the Trading in Financial Instruments Act of 29 July 2005 (i.e. Journal of Laws 2019, item 875, as amended). The marketing communication is prepared with the highest diligence, objectivity, presents the facts known to the author on the date of preparation and is devoid of any evaluation elements. The marketing communication is prepared without considering the client’s needs, his individual financial situation and does not present any investment strategy in any way. The marketing communication does not constitute an offer of sale, offering, subscription, invitation to purchase, advertisement or promotion of any financial instruments. XTB S.A. is not liable for any client’s actions or omissions, in particular for the acquisition or disposal of financial instruments, undertaken on the basis of the information contained in this marketing communication. In the event that the marketing communication contains any information about any results regarding the financial instruments indicated therein, these do not constitute any guarantee or forecast regarding the future results.
