Corn gains 2% amid crop tour projection below USDA estimate; speculators positioning shift 📈

Futures on CBOT Corn (CORN) are rising today as Pro Farmer’s crop tour projected output below USDA estimates, with added concerns over disease risks. Here are the most important highlights from the corn market. Chicago corn futures closed higher also yesterday session, supported by strong export sales.

• Pro Farmer crop tour pegs 2025/26 US corn output at 16.204 billion bushels, well below USDA’s 16.742 billion.

• Managed money reduced net short positions to a 12-week low of 144,650 lots; long reached a 16-week-high.

• USDA reported US corn conditions at 71% good-to-excellent, slightly above trade expectations (70%).

• 7% of corn crop reported mature vs 10% last year; 44% dented, in line with average.

• US weekly corn export inspections rose 24% to 1.31 million tonnes, led by Mexico and Japan.

• Total export inspections for 2024/25 now at 65.53 million tonnes, 28% ahead of last year’s pace.

• Taiwan’s MFIG issued a tender for up to 65,000 tonnes of corn from US, Argentina, Brazil or South Africa.

• Russia kept corn export duty at zero; FOB index edged higher to $218.80/tonne.

Corn (D1 interval)

Source: xStation5

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Commitment of Traders (CoT CFTC) Report

Managed Money (Large Speculators)

• Strong build-up in long positions: +27.5k contracts, the highest level in 16 weeks.

• Short positions were virtually unchanged (-241), while spreads declined (-5.9k).

• Net short positions reduced to a 12-week low of 144.7k, marking a clear shift toward a less negative sentiment.

Commercials (Producers/Merchants)

• Significant increase in short positions: +43.5k, acting as a hedge against potential price gains.

• Commercial longs rose by +15.9k, but the scale of shorts continues to dominate.

• In practice, commercials are hedging production while funds are trimming shorts and adding longs.

Summary

• Managed money is reducing its previous pessimism, which technically provides support to prices.

• Commercials are expanding short hedging, indicating that producers view the current market strength as an opportunity to lock in sales.

• The market is at a point of tension: funds are starting to “play long” while commercials increase selling pressure.

Source: CFTC

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