US Department of Agriculture (USDA) released its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report (WASDE) today. Forecast for corn, soybean and wheat end stocks in the United States were boosted by more than the market had expected.
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End stocks in the United States in 2023/24 season
- Corn: 2.172 billion bushels vs 2.148 billion bushels expected (2.162 billion previously)
- Soybean: 315 million bushels vs 284 million bushels expected (280 million previously)
- Wheat: 658 million bushels vs 648 million bushels expected (648 million previously)
Global end stocks in 2023/24 season
- Corn: 322.1 million tonnes vs 323.1 million tonnes expected (325.2 million previously)
- Soybean: 116 million tonnes vs 112.5 million tonnes expected (114.6 million previously)
- Wheat: 259.4 million tonnes vs 261.1 million tonnes expected (260 million previously)
Corn and soybean production in Argentine and Brazil in 2023/24 season
Corn
- Argentina: 55 million tonnes vs 55.6 million tonnes expected (55 million previously)
- Brazil: 124 million tonnes vs 123.6 million tonnes expected (127 million previously)
Soybean
- Argentina: 50 million tonnes vs 50.9 million tonnes expected (50 million previously)
- Brazil: 156 million tonnes vs 152.5 million tonnes expected (157 million previously)
USDA points out in the report that lower use of corn for food, seeds and in the industry is contributing to higher end stocks. In case of soybean, lower exports and higher end stocks can be spotted. Higher soybean stockpiles could be a result of limited demand from China. In case of wheat, production is stable, domestic consumption lower while there are no changes to exports.
Released WASDE report is rather negative for all grains, although it should be said that CORN gained around 1% in the aftermath of the publication. Nevertheless, it is worth noting that corn is one of the most oversold agricultural commodity. SOYBEAN dropped over 1%. WHEAT trades little changed.
Declines on wheat market have eased recently. On the other hand, corn continues to drop, although a slight rebound can be spotted today. This rebound, however, is likely driven by profit taking from short positions. Source: xStation5
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