- Bitcoin rose above $67,000 on the wave of Trump's growing chances of winning the election, in the US;
- Joe Biden's withdrawal from the presidential race was somewhat pessimistically received by the market; Kamala Harris' chances are priced higher - as a result, we see some profit taking in the crypto sector
- Ethereum ETFs will launch starting tomorrow (July 23) - some selling pressure is expected from the Grayscale Ethereum Trust (high management fees)
- The market is waiting for significant volatility catalysts on July 25-27 (Trump will speak for about 30 minutes on July 27 at about 8 PM BST, in the last day of the Bitcoin Conference, in Nashville)
- Founder and CEO of BlackRock (which owns the world's largest Bitcoin ETF), Laurence D.Fink among proposed candidates for US Treasury Secretary
- Speculation around Trump's inclusion of Bitcoin in US strategic reserves is growing. Market waits for 'signal' at Bitcoin Conference
Cryptocurrencies are trading slightly lower today, but the prices of most major projects have gained strongly in recent days. The market is discounting some 'risk' of Kamala Harris becoming the Democratic leader, as the Democratic environment is known to be less supportive of cryptocurrencies. On the other hand, however, Trump's chances, in the opinion of the markets, are still dominant, so it is difficult to count on a particularly dynamic reversal of the trend of recent weeks. The US 10-year treasuries yields are slightly lower today, nearing 4.22%, with US dollar index futures lower by 0.08%. Today, futures market points to higher opening today session on Wall Street; US100 gains 1%.
The market is waiting for a 'Nashville moment'
- A key 'bullish catalyst' for the crypto market is the scenario, of Donald Trump's announcement of Bitcoin as a future U.S. reserve asset, at the upcoming Trump conference in Milawaukee; the former president has long seemed highly determined to still attend and deliver a speech that could raise the volatility of the entire crypto market.
- According to some observers, it was speculation about Bitcoin's greater role in the global financial system that provided it with a nearly 20% rebound from its June lows.
- Until the Nashville conference, the activity of BTC sellers and short sellers may be limited, but if there are no significant declarations beyond a few optimistic comments, we may see a reversal of the scale of the recent upward movements and a spike in supply activity.
- The options market suggests that the crypto market is gearing up for a significant event this week, suggesting a high spread in expected prices.
- During a recent interview, BlackRock CEO Fink pointed to Bitcoin's important role as an asset that can hedge a portfolio, uncorrelated with the traditional financial market.
ETF funds are steadily buying Bitcoin
Inflows into Bitcoin remain high, totaling more than $380 million last Friday; sizable activity can be seen at BlackRock (IBIT) and Fidelity. BlackRock CEO Lawrence Fink's perspective as U.S. Treasury Secretary would potentially support an 'end' scenario for the regulatory war targeting cryptocurrencies in the United States.
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Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P , XTB Research
Bitcoin (D1 interval)
Bitcoin quotes have once again halted declines near the SMA200 (red line) and are rebounding above the SMA50 and SMA100 (black line and yellow line) again, signalling upward momentum.The nearest support is around $66,000 where the 23.6 Fibonacci retracement of the upward wave from January runs.
Source: xStation5
Ethereum (D1 interval)
Ethereum, similar to Bitcoin, halted declines at the level of the SMA200 (red line), near $3,000. Now, important resistance is located around 3650 (23.6 Fibonacci retracement of the upward wave from January, previous price reactions). Short-term support should be sought at $3300 (38.2 Fibo, price reactions). A retest of the SMA200, at $3200 - 3150, could indicate an extended downtrend.
Source: xStation5
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