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US equity indices are likely to finish the session broadly in the same tone as they started. US100 remains under pressure, down 0.70%, US500 is off 0.10%, while US2000 outperforms, up 1.10%.
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The US dollar continues to be the strongest currency, with the USDIDX up 0.20% and EURUSD down 0.25%.
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The dominant driver today is President Donald Trump’s call for a significant increase in US defense spending—up to USD 1.5 trillion—along with guidance to curb shareholder payouts at major contractors until more is invested in production capacity and R&D.
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Investors are taking profits in the technology sector after recent gains, while lower-than-expected weekly jobless claims and mixed macro signals are tempering risk appetite ahead of tomorrow’s key US labor-market data.
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The US trade deficit narrowed again (trade balance: −USD 29.4bn vs. −USD 58.1bn expected; prior −USD 48.1bn). The improvement reflects both lower imports (a lagged effect of tariffs) and higher exports (supported by a weaker dollar).
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Initial jobless claims remain low. Today’s report showed a slight increase to 208k (vs. 213k expected; 199k prior).
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The New York Fed’s December Survey of Consumer Expectations showed higher short-term inflation expectations, while medium- and long-term outlooks remained anchored. One-year inflation expectations rose to 3.4% (from 3.2%), while three- and five-year expectations held at 3.0%.
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Alphabet (GOOG) gained 1.9% after overtaking Apple to become the world’s second-most valuable company for the first time since 2019, underscoring its leadership in artificial intelligence.
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Passive funds managing more than USD 100bn are rebalancing at the start of January 2026 to align with updated Bloomberg (BCOM) and S&P GSCI index guidelines—typically a catalyst for heightened volatility in commodity markets.
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While gold continues to enjoy investor confidence (down just 0.04%), sentiment in silver has cooled sharply (down more than 3.40%). Investors are pulling capital from silver-backed ETFs and increasingly positioning for downside via aggressive short instruments.
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Cryptocurrencies sold off earlier in the day, but bulls managed to recoup losses into the close. Bitcoin is heading into the end of the session slightly lower (−0.05%) around USD 91,200.
Economic calendar: US Non-Farm Payrolls and Supreme Court decision on tariffs in focus🗽
BREAKING: Weak macro data from Germany 🚨Norwegian CPI rises
Morning wrap (09.01.2026)
NY Fed Survey: higher inflation expectations, but also higher equity price expectations 📄🔎
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