Daily Summary: Mixed PMI data from the US and EU

8:01 PM September 22, 2023

  • On Wall Street, we are observing a slight rebound in indices after two days of stronger declines. The US500 is trading slightly positive, while the Nasdaq 100 (US100) gains 0.50%.
  • PMI readings from the USA were mixed, with the manufacturing PMI slightly bouncing back and coming in above expectations:
    • Service PMI Index: 50.2 Forecast: 50.7 Previously: 50.5
    • Manufacturing PMI Index: 48.9 Forecast: 48.2 Previously: 47.9
    • S&P Composite PMI Index: 50.1 Forecast: 50.4 Previously: 50.2
  • Today, PMI data was also published for EU countries. The market first received terrible data from France, followed by better numbers from Germany, although still pointing towards a recession.
    • Germany:
      • Manufacturing PMI: 39.8 (expected: 39.5; previously: 39.1)
      • Services PMI: 49.8 (expected: 47.1; previously: 47.3)
    • France:
      • Manufacturing PMI: 43.6 (expected: 46.1; previously: 46.0)
      • Services PMI: 43.9 (expected: 46.0; previously: 46.0)
  • EURUSD managed to erase some of its previous gains, and the dollar index futures (USDIDX) are trading lower. The dollar is pulling back slightly after its recent strong advances.
  • Investors are slowly beginning to accept the prospect of maintaining higher interest rates for longer than previously priced in. This stance was confirmed today by Susan Collins, head of the Philadelphia Fed, and Michelle Bowman, who emphasized that the anticipated slow decline in inflation (amid a strong economy) might require a more robust tightening of policy.
  • The Bank of Japan keeps interest rates unchanged, and the Japanese yen (JPY) is recording moderate declines against other currencies after dovish remarks from the bank.
  • In the cryptocurrency market, we are observing moderate volatility today. Bitcoin and Ethereum are stabilizing at yesterday's lows.

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