Daily Summary: Powell Gives Green Light for Rate Cuts

8:46 pm 23 August 2024

  • European indices end the day in green. On the continent, Spain's IBEX35 and Italy's ITA40 grew the most, by over 1%. The Swiss index and German DAX ended similarly. The domestic WIG20 grew by only 0.5%
  • American indices sharply up, with Russell 2000 leading with over 2.9% upward movement. Meanwhile, the indices reduced gains and erased most of the additional positive movement related to Powell's speech at Jackson Hole
  • Powell, during his speech at Jackson Hole, confirmed readiness to start interest rate cuts, stating that the time has come to adjust policy
  • According to Powell, the balance of risk factors has changed, inflation has significantly decreased, and the Fed doesn't want to allow further cooling in the job market
  • At the same time, Powell doesn't indicate a risk of economic collapse
  • The pace of interest rate cuts in the US, their number, and size will depend on data
  • Other bankers during the Jackson Hole symposium pointed to the need for interest rate cuts (Harker, Bostic). Bailey from BoE indicated that the fight against inflation is not over
  • As a result, we observed strong increases in GBPUSD. The pair rose above July 2023 peaks and reached its highest level since April 2022
  • The USDPLN pair fell to its lowest level in 3 years
  • The US dollar is approaching the 2023 low. Gold is recovering yesterday's losses and trying to close near the peaks
  • Market confidence in further interest rate cuts in the eurozone is also growing, which is associated with the continued weak state of the European economy
  • Peloton shares are up more than 5% after yesterday's impressive 35% increase. Cameco gains 6% due to lowered uranium production outlook in Kazakhstan
  • WTI breaks out of support around $72.5 per barrel, rising over 2.5% today and approaching $75 per barrel. Oil reacts positively to announcements of interest rate cuts and once again prices in the decrease in oil inventories presented by the DOE
  • Bitcoin again moved past the 61,500 USD zone and the 50 SMA with a daily increase of over 2.6%
  • New home sales in the US increased by over 10% for July to 739,000 from 617,000, indicating that the real estate market remains resilient to high interest rates
  • Retail sales in Canada fell by 0.3% m/m, in line with expectations, but core sales unexpectedly rose by 0.3% m/m. USDCAD fell significantly to the level of 1.3500

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