📉 Stock Market
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Although the US session started with gains and an attempt to rebound from last week's declines, the price growth of chip companies completely fizzled out, and major indexes (led by US100) dived sharply.
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The decline in US100 reached nearly 4%, while on US500 it fell by over 2% – currently, these losses have been reduced by about half.
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The VIX volatility index surged by over 10%, crossing the psychological barrier of 20 points, signaling a sharp increase in investor anxiety and demand for portfolio hedging.
🌍 Geopolitics
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The US President announced that a peace agreement with Iran is in the "final phase", which will lead to the unblocking of the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic route for global trade.
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However, it is worth noting that since the conflict began, Trump has announced an imminent agreement nearly 40 times.
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Israel and Iran declared a halt to mutual attacks, but we could once again face an escalation of the situation from the US.
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Trump indicated that following the downing of a patrol helicopter in the Strait of Hormuz, the United States must respond to Iran's aggression, which led to a slight rebound in oil prices and a temporary deepening of the losses on Wall Street.
🛢️ Commodities
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WTI crude fell today to its 200-day moving average, dropping below $88 per barrel, while Brent crude tested around $90 per barrel. Calendar spreads dropped below $2, indicating fading tension, although ships still do not pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
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Gold is falling to its lowest level since March, completely erasing this year's gains – it is currently trading at $4,260, and Citigroup and UBS are significantly cutting their forecasts for gold this year.
💱 Currencies
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Deteriorating sentiment limited the rebound in the EURUSD pair, which is trading around the 1.1550 level, just ahead of Thursday's ECB interest rate decision.
📊 Macroeconomics
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Investors are showing extreme caution ahead of Wednesday's publication of the consumer price index (CPI) report and Thursday's producer price index (PPI) reading – data that will indicate whether the Federal Reserve (Fed) will opt for interest rate hikes this year.
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Today's US data showed a slightly smaller trade deficit than expected, coming in at $55.9 billion for April (an expansion to $56.5 billion had been expected).
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Expectations for interest rate hikes are dropping slightly – the market is currently pricing in one full hike by the Fed this year, whereas following Friday's NFP data, it was over 1.2 hikes.
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China's trade surplus is growing strongly, showing a balance of $105 billion for May (compared to the previous $84.8 billion). Interestingly, imports are experiencing an extreme acceleration of 27.5% YoY, compared to just under 20% for exports.
📱 Companies
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OpenAI going public: widespread attention was drawn to the news that the creator of ChatGPT filed a confidential draft registration statement for an initial public offering (IPO).
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SpaceX in the starting blocks: the market is also anxiously awaiting the initial public offering of the space giant owned by Elon Musk, scheduled for the end of this week.
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Billion-dollar biotech acquisition: British pharmaceutical giant GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) announced the acquisition of Nuvalent for $10.6 billion, causing Nuvalent shares to skyrocket by nearly 39%.
🔴US100 drops nearly 4%
US Open: Indices Continue Rebound, Driven by Tech Stocks and Falling Oil Prices
Intel gains 10% after talks with Google and Nvidia
Market Wrap: Markets rebound following Trump's declarations
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