Daily summary: The US economy is starting to weaken

8:59 pm 5 April 2023

More data shows a cooling of the US economy. The ADP report shows employment growth of only 145,000 against expectations of over 200,000. This is another labor market report after JOLTS, which showed a clear cooling
In addition, the ISM index falls to 51.2 points from the previous level of 55.1. The sub-index of new orders, prices and labor fall strongly. Nevertheless, they all remain above 50 points, indicating expansion, albeit at a much slower pace
In response, we saw fallling Wall Street indices, despite falling yields. The dollar reacted negatively at first, but eventually gains against the euro at the end of today's session
Interestingly, the US data led to a softening stance from the hawkish Mester, who suggests that further hikes may no longer be appropriate in the US
EURUSD falls below the level of 1.0900 nullifying all the growth. This is a possible result of weak PMI readings for services from European countries
The RBNZ surprises and raises interest rates by 50 bps, maintaining the pace of increases from February. 25 bp was expected. NZD strengthened sharply, but later gave back some of the gains
Oil inventories according to the DOE fell sharply, but oil is behaving mixed and is near the open after the weekend's surprise OPEC+ production cut. The declines may be linked to concerns about economic growth
Today we saw sizable declines in shares of companies related to artificial intelligence and semiconductors, which is linked to Biden's negative statement on regulation and the actions of the Japanese state
Risk assets are under pressure today. Bitcoin fell below 28 000 USD level with mixed altcoins sentimens.
Against the backdrop of a strong dollar, gold limited its gains and is trading around $2020 per ounce
The most pronounced trend today is the Wall Street decline. The US100 is losing as much as 1.5%, although the US30 is near yesterday's close.

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