Today's session was not a very volatile one. In fact, we did not observe any sudden twists and turns; rather, from the beginning, the mood was rather downbeat. In general, indices tended to decline, the dollar gained and commodities came under pressure. But what caught the eye in today's session?
Certainly, attention should be paid to data from the US labour market. As always on Thursday, we learned about initial claims for unemployment benefits, and here there was a big surprise. Initial claims fell to 184 thousand! This is the lowest level since 1969. Exactly two weeks ago we had the first drop below 200 000 in over 50 years. It can be seen that the labour market is getting tighter, which should seal the decision on stronger normalization of monetary policy in the USA. It may be that tapering will be increased from meeting to meeting, opening the way for hikes in the middle of next year and even balance sheet reduction itself next year. There is a good chance that tomorrow's US data will show inflation rising above 7%. Data at 13:30 GMT.
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Create account Try a demo Download mobile app Download mobile appCO2 emission permits are worth noting. They reached almost EUR 90 per contract, although today prices retreated and found themselves close to EUR 80. Theoretically, one could argue that the level of EUR 100 would be an insurmountable barrier, due to the fact that companies, in the absence of emission permits, pay such a penalty. However, it turns out that if the fine itself is imposed, the fined company still has to buy permits from the market. It cannot be ruled out that prices will rise above this barrier. The German authorities have said that they want to keep permits above EUR 60 to continue the pressure to change the energy mix. However, it is worth knowing that the strong rises in recent weeks have been the result of huge amounts of coal being consumed, due to high gas prices and low gas inventories.
Crude oil and most commodities came under pressure from the dollar and rather worse sentiment today. WTI crude oil failed to break through the downtrend line, which was set from the last local highs, the highest since 2014. The Iraqi oil minister indicated that the release of strategic reserves from the US has a negative impact on oil, but limited in time and price.
The session on Wall Street was similar to that in Europe. S&P lost ca. 0.3%, Nasdaq was down 1%, while DJIA gained 0.1%.
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