European indices have just ended a very weak session. The broad Euro Stoxx 50 fell 1.6%, Germany’s DAX declined 1.65%, and the UK’s FTSE lost 1.3%. European natural gas futures climbed to their highest levels since December 2022 amid low inventories ahead of the autumn-winter heating season.
- Today’s session was almost devoid of major macroeconomic releases. Tomorrow at 1:30 PM GMT, markets will receive the U.S. PPI report for August, offering an initial indication of what to expect from Friday’s CPI release, also due at 1:30 PM GMT. The inflation data could shape final expectations ahead of the Fed’s decision and provide fresh clues on the momentum of the U.S. economy.
- The Nasdaq 100 is down almost 0.2% today, the S&P 500 is lower by close to 0.3%, while the DJIA is losing 0.5%. Gold is trading near $4,415 per ounce and, similarly to Bitcoin, which is hovering around $78,500, showed little reaction to the Treasury Department’s decision to triple U.S. bond buybacks.
- The U.S. Treasury tripled the size of its next long-term bond buyback to $6 billion, yet the market reaction remained negative: Treasury prices fell and yields moved higher. Scott Bessent stressed that the larger buybacks are intended to improve market liquidity and limit sharp moves in yields rather than alter the fundamental valuation of U.S. government debt. Although he had previously indicated that the scale of the program would be “at least doubled,” even a tripling was not enough to stop the sell-off, with the TNOTE contract falling to its lowest level since November 2023.
- Brent crude futures (OIL) have risen nearly 2% today to above $100 per barrel, reaching that level for the first time since May 2026. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields climbed to 4.85%, a level not seen since 2023, shortly after the Treasury announcement.
- EIA significantly raised its oil price forecasts, lifting its average 2026 Brent estimate to $91.01 from $86.81 and WTI to $84.65 from $80.88. Despite the upward revision, the agency still expects a sharp decline in prices in 2027, with Brent forecast at around $73.74 per barrel, nearly 25% below current levels.
- The agency expects a gradual improvement in flows through the Strait of Hormuz and higher production in the Middle East in the coming months, although some export restrictions are expected to remain in place through the end of 2026. Global oil production is forecast at 100.6 million bpd in 2026 and is expected to rise to 109.9 million bpd in 2027.
- Global oil demand is expected to reach 102.6 million bpd in 2026 and 105 million bpd in 2027. At the same time, EIA expects U.S. oil production to continue rising to 14.26 million bpd in 2027, which could add to supply-side pressure on prices over the longer term.
- Donald Trump has said U.S. economic growth could reach 20%, although data going back to 1947 show that such a pace has been recorded only once: in Q3 2020, when GDP rebounded at a 34.9% annualized rate following the pandemic-driven collapse. Current conditions are very different, with U.S. real GDP expanding at just 1.5% annualized in Q2 2026. While the administration points to tax cuts, investment and productivity gains as potential growth drivers, economists generally view sustained growth anywhere near 20% as extremely unlikely.
GOLD (D1 interval)
Gold is up around 1.5% today to above $4,415 per ounce and has broken above the 200-day exponential moving average (red line), attempting to confirm a return to the technical uptrend. Silver is also gaining more than 3% today.
Source: xStation5
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