Daily Summary: Wall Street in limbo as US considers lifting sanctions on Iranian oil

📈 Stock Market

• The US cash session is recording a slight correction, and initial enthusiasm has clearly faded. Only the Dow Jones remains above its opening level, while the S&P 500 is slightly below its closing point, and the Nasdaq is losing over 1%.

• Alphabet (Google) is recording a decline of over 5%, placing these shares among the largest drops in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices. The pressure was triggered by the departures of key individuals from the AI sector, including Noam Shazeer (from Gemini to OpenAI) and John Jumper (from DeepMind to Anthropic), heightening concerns about a talent drain from Google.

• SpaceX extended its losses to three consecutive sessions, losing 10% today. Following its earlier strong debut and temporarily overtaking Microsoft and Amazon, the company is correcting its dynamic gains. At the same time, the firm revealed over $100 billion in cash and announced a bond issue, which the market interprets as an attempt to finance further expansion.

• In the Old Continent, sentiment remains moderately positive. Only the French CAC 40 pulled back by over 0.2%, while the remaining European indices ended the session in positive territory – including the Spanish IBEX 35, which rose by nearly 1.2%.

🌍 Politics and Geopolitics

• The US–Iran talks in Switzerland remain the main topic on global markets. According to media reports, the negotiations lasted about 18 hours and were described by both sides as significant progress toward an agreement, although they are still preliminary and require details to be finalized.

• US Vice President JD Vance spoke of "great progress" and confirmed that one of the elements of the agreement is the return of UN nuclear inspectors, who are to oversee the implementation of the initial arrangements. In parallel, the parties agreed on a 60-day path for further negotiations leading to a final agreement.

• A key element of the talks remains the issue of sanctions on Iranian oil. The US decided to temporarily suspend some of the restrictions, which is intended to allow Iran to legally export the commodity under conditions close to market terms. According to media reports, the parties agreed on an initial draft providing for a mechanism of "licensing" oil sales and a partial easing of financial pressure.

• The Iranian side emphasizes that the agreement primarily has an economic dimension and enables oil exports without the existing sanction restrictions, although details are still being negotiated.

• Donald Trump, in a post on Truth Social, stated that Iran will agree to "expanded weapons inspections," which fits into a broader package of arrangements covering both control of the nuclear program and military infrastructure. Tehran did not respond directly to this statement, but in parallel emphasizes that the key goal is economic stabilization and restoring oil exports.

• The whole situation indicates two parallel pillars of negotiations: on one side are the mechanisms of nuclear control and international inspections, and on the other – the gradual unfreezing of Iranian oil exports and partial easing of sanctions. Despite the breakthrough, the process remains at an early stage, and details regarding the scope of control, timeline, and full scale of lifting restrictions are still being negotiated.

• The market is currently focusing on the further development of the geopolitical situation, with particular emphasis on the pace of implementing the US–Iran agreement and its impact on commodity prices.

• The political situation in the United Kingdom was an additional factor influencing sentiment in Europe. The resignation of Prime Minister Keir Starmer was widely noted, but the market reaction remained subdued.

💱 Currencies and Bonds

• The pound lost only 0.19% against the dollar in reaction to the British prime minister's resignation and recovered its losses later in the day.

• Yields on 10-year gilt bonds remained stable, suggesting that the political move in the UK was largely priced in by the market beforehand.

🛢️ Commodities

• Mixed sentiments prevail in the precious metals market. Gold is losing about 1% and testing the level of $4,200 per ounce, while silver is gaining about 1% and approaching $65.

• Crude oil continues its correction, falling by over 3%. This reflects a direct reaction to the improvement in sentiment surrounding a potential agreement and expectations regarding the easing of sanctions. As a result, Brent fell below $78, and WTI dropped below $74.

🪙 Cryptocurrencies

• Timid gains were also observed in the digital asset market.

• Ethereum is gaining over 0.3% and broke through the $1,730 level.

• Bitcoin recorded an increase of over 0.4% and is testing the $64,500 level.