DAX: DE40 loses ahead of the EBC decision 📉Volkswagen under pressure

European markets are awaiting today’s key events from the European Central Bank, with the rate decision scheduled for 1:15 GMT and a speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde at 1:45 CET. Market consensus points to interest rates remaining unchanged across the euro area.

In Germany, investors are also looking ahead to the release of national inflation data at 1 PM GMT, where expectations suggest a decline to 2.2% year-on-year from 2.4% previously. On a monthly basis, inflation is forecast to rise by 0.2%, unchanged from the prior reading. DAX futures are trading lower today, falling below 24,200 points.

Source: xStation5

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.

Corporate News

Volkswagen AG

Volkswagen warned that meeting its financial targets for the year depends on a stable supply of semiconductors, noting that potential shortages of Nexperia chips could further strain an already struggling automotive sector.

European automakers are currently facing limited access to components from the Dutch manufacturer Nexperia, which has become entangled in a trade dispute between China and Western countries. Industry groups have cautioned that if the situation doesn’t improve soon, production lines could come to a halt within days.

In its quarterly report, Volkswagen maintained its full-year guidance, stressing that it relies on adequate chip availability.

Third-Quarter Results

• Operating loss: €1.3 billion (≈$1.5 billion)

• The result reflects €5.1 billion in impairments and write-downs, largely tied to overly optimistic EV expansion plans at Porsche AG, as well as U.S. import tariffs that hit the group’s most profitable brands.

• Operating margin (excl. one-offs): 5.4% vs. -1.6% a year earlier

Outlook and Challenges

Volkswagen is struggling with a slower-than-expected shift toward electric vehicles in Europe. Weak demand and a sluggish post-pandemic recovery have left the company with costly excess production capacity, while declining sales in China and the U.S. continue to weigh on results.

To address these challenges, CFO Arno Antlitz said the company will tighten cost discipline and implement new structural measures, focusing on leveraging scale and enhancing group synergies.

CEO Oliver Blume has also taken steps to reduce investment burdens, scaling back battery and in-house software production plans and forming partnerships with China’s Xpeng Inc. and U.S.-based Rivian Automotive Inc. to strengthen VW’s position abroad.
In Germany, Volkswagen, Audi, and Porsche are restructuring operations in agreement with labor unions to achieve significant cost savings and higher efficiency.

HelloFresh SE

HelloFresh reported adjusted EBITDA above analysts’ expectations for the third quarter, sending its shares up nearly 3% today.

Third-Quarter Results

• Adjusted EBITDA: €40.3 million (-44% y/y), est. €37.4 million (Bloomberg consensus)

• International adjusted EBITDA: €33.2 million (-4.3% y/y), est. €33.4 million

• North America adjusted EBITDA: €47.5 million (-36% y/y), est. €53.7 million

• Revenue: €1.58 billion (-14% y/y), est. €1.61 billion

• Sales at constant FX: -9.3%, est. -8.83%

• Adjusted EBITDA margin: 2.5% (vs. 3.9% y/y), est. 2.45%

• Average order value: €65.60, est. €66.11

• Orders: 23.93 million, est. 24.53 million

• International orders: 10.94 million

• North America orders: 12.98 million, est. 13.23 million

Full-Year Outlook

• Company maintains guidance for a 6–8% decline in sales at constant FX (est. -8.05%)

• Adjusted EBITDA still expected between €415–465 million (est. €436.9 million)

• FY2025 guidance reaffirmed, with no changes to sales or profitability assumptions.

Source: xStation5

Scout24 SE

Scout24 expects full-year revenue growth to reach the upper end of its previously guided range (+14% to +15%), maintaining a strong outlook for 2025.

Full-Year Forecast

• Revenue growth seen at the high end of +14%–15% (previously: +14%–15%)

Third-Quarter Results

• Operating EBITDA: €104.2 million (+15% y/y), est. €102.4 million (Bloomberg consensus)

• Operating EBITDA margin: 62.9% (unchanged y/y)

• Revenue: €165.6 million (+15% y/y), est. €163 million

Commentary

The company narrowed its guidance for an increase in the adjusted operating EBITDA margin to the upper end of the previous range (up to +70bps). Management reiterated that boosting EBITDA and profitability remains the company’s main strategic focus. Scout24 shares are trading modestly higher today.

Source: xStation5