- The U.S. House of Representatives will vote on the Senate bill that would fund federal agencies through the end of January 2026, potentially ending the record-long government shutdown.
- Comments from Fed and ECB members will be the main drivers for EUR/USD.
- OPEC and API reports are expected to boost oil market volatility.
- The U.S. House of Representatives will vote on the Senate bill that would fund federal agencies through the end of January 2026, potentially ending the record-long government shutdown.
- Comments from Fed and ECB members will be the main drivers for EUR/USD.
- OPEC and API reports are expected to boost oil market volatility.
Today’s session is expected to be relatively quiet in terms of major macroeconomic releases, with investors’ attention focused on the U.S. House of Representatives vote on the federal spending bill passed by the Senate, which could end the more than 40-day government shutdown. Many Democrats have already pledged to block the bill, considering the promise to “revisit” healthcare reform in December insufficient. The first vote should begin around 9 PM BST.
From a macro perspective, the most important events will be speeches by Fed and ECB members, particularly relevant for EUR/USD volatility. Expectations for a December rate cut in the U.S. are slowly reviving, as recent ADP data showed an average weekly job decline of about 11,000 over the past four weeks. For the oil market, key events will be the release of the OPEC report and the API data on U.S. crude inventories.
On Wall Street, financial results will be released by Cisco Systems, Tencent Music Entertainment, and Circle Internet, while in Europe, reports from Bayer and Infineon have already appeared.
Economic calendar for today:
07:00 BST – Germany: October inflation data:
-
HICP y/y: actual 2.3%; forecast 2.3%; previous 2.4%
-
HICP m/m: actual 0.3%; forecast 0.3%; previous 0.2%
-
CPI y/y: actual 2.3%; forecast 2.3%; previous 2.4%
-
CPI m/m: actual 0.3%; forecast 0.3%; previous 0.2%
08:30 BST – China: October Total Social Financing
-
forecast 1,230.0B; previous 3,530.0B
08:30 BST – China: M2 Money Supply (y/y)
-
forecast 8.1%; previous 8.4%
08:30 BST – China: New Loans (October)
-
forecast 460.0B; previous 1,290.0B
08:30 BST – China: Outstanding Loan Growth (y/y)
-
forecast 6.6%; previous 6.6%
10:00 BST – Eurozone: Eurogroup meeting
10:00 BST – U.S.: Monthly OPEC report
10:45 BST – Eurozone: Speech by ECB’s Schnabel
11:40 BST – Eurozone: Speech by ECB’s de Guindos
12:00 BST – U.S.: Monthly OPEC report
12:00 BST – U.S.: Mortgage refinancing index (previous 1,290.8)
12:00 BST – U.S.: Mortgage market index (previous 332.3)
12:00 BST – U.S.: MBA 30-year mortgage rate (previous 6.31%)
12:05 BST – U.K.: Speech by BoE MPC member Pill
13:30 BST – Canada: September housing and construction data
-
Building permits: forecast +0.8% m/m; previous –1.2% m/m
14:20 BST – U.S.: Speech by FOMC member Williams
15:20 BST – U.S.: Speech by Fed Board member Waller
21:30 BST – U.S.: EIA report
-
API crude oil inventories: previous +6.500 M
21:45 BST – New Zealand: October retail sales data
-
Electronic card retail sales m/m: previous –0.5%
-
Electronic card retail sales y/y: previous +1.0%
BREAKING: EURUSD muted on in-line German CPI inflation 📌 🇩🇪
Morning wrap (12.11.2025)
US100 loses 0.5%🚩
BREAKING: US NFIB Business Optimism Index slightly weaker than expected🗽
The content of this report has been created by XTB S.A., with its registered office in Warsaw, at Prosta 67, 00-838 Warsaw, Poland, (KRS number 0000217580) and supervised by Polish Supervision Authority ( No. DDM-M-4021-57-1/2005). This material is a marketing communication within the meaning of Art. 24 (3) of Directive 2014/65/EU of the European Parliament and of the Council of 15 May 2014 on markets in financial instruments and amending Directive 2002/92/EC and Directive 2011/61/EU (MiFID II). Marketing communication is not an investment recommendation or information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy within the meaning of Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 16 April 2014 on market abuse (market abuse regulation) and repealing Directive 2003/6/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council and Commission Directives 2003/124/EC, 2003/125/EC and 2004/72/EC and Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2016/958 of 9 March 2016 supplementing Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 of the European Parliament and of the Council with regard to regulatory technical standards for the technical arrangements for objective presentation of investment recommendations or other information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy and for disclosure of particular interests or indications of conflicts of interest or any other advice, including in the area of investment advisory, within the meaning of the Trading in Financial Instruments Act of 29 July 2005 (i.e. Journal of Laws 2019, item 875, as amended). The marketing communication is prepared with the highest diligence, objectivity, presents the facts known to the author on the date of preparation and is devoid of any evaluation elements. The marketing communication is prepared without considering the client’s needs, his individual financial situation and does not present any investment strategy in any way. The marketing communication does not constitute an offer of sale, offering, subscription, invitation to purchase, advertisement or promotion of any financial instruments. XTB S.A. is not liable for any client’s actions or omissions, in particular for the acquisition or disposal of financial instruments, undertaken on the basis of the information contained in this marketing communication. In the event that the marketing communication contains any information about any results regarding the financial instruments indicated therein, these do not constitute any guarantee or forecast regarding the future results.
