- The main macro event today is the European Central Bank decision
- Claims, PPI inflation and retail sales in the US will be published moments after
- Indexes in Europe open slightly lower
The most important place on today's macroeconomic calendar will of course be occupied by the ECB decision and the US macro data package, which will be published just 15 minutes after it. As recent data from the Eurozone economy performed very poorly, investors see chances for the ECB to keep rates unchanged at 3.75% although Lagarde announced a 25bp hike at its September meeting. Anonymous Reuters sources indicated that the ECB still expects elevated inflation next year which could potentially argue for a rate hike.
Potentially, the EUR could strengthen after a hike at least in the short term. De facto, the ECB's decision could go both ways, and both maintaining and raising rates will come as some kind of surprise to the markets, so attention will be drawn to Christine Lagarde's conference, which will begin at 2:45 p.m. Readings from the United States, on the other hand, will show how the dynamics of producer prices in relation to retail sales. Markets expect unemployment claims to rise marginally after the last strong reading.
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07:00 BST, Sweden - Inflation report for August:
- CPI y/y: 7.5% expected 7k7% y/y; previously 9.3% y/y
- CPI m/m: 0.1% expected 0.2% m/m; previously 0% m/m
07:30 BST, Switzerland - PPI inflation
- PPI y/y: 0.6% vs 0.8% previously
- PPI m/m: -0.2% vs -0.1% previously
13:15 BST, European Central Bank decision
13:30 BST, package of macro readings from the US (expected)
- US Jobless claims, expected: 225k, previous: 216k
- Continued jobless claims: expected: 1.6925 million, previous: 1.679 million
- Retail sales m/m: expected: 0.1%, previous: 0,7%
- Core retail sales m/m, expected: 0.4%, previous: 1%
- PPI inflation y/y expected: 1.3% vs. 0.8% previously
- PPI inflation m/m, expected: 0.4% vs 0.3% previously
13:30 BST Canadian wholesale sales m/m, expected: 1.4% vs -2.7% previously
15:30 BST, gas inventories by EIA, expected: 51 bcf vs 33 bcf previously
Central bankers' speeches
-
14:45 - press conference Christine Lagarde, ECB
- 18:00 - commentary by Enri, ECB
- 20:30 - commentary by de Cos, ECB
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