- Mixed opening of session in Europe: DAX and EU50 lose, FTSE gains
- Luxury sector under pressure, Kering (KER.FR) listings halted after Gucci sales drop warning
- Fed decision and, above all, Powell's conference in the market's focus 7 PM GMT
Today's macroeconomic calendar is fairly light, although significant volatility is expected between 8:00 pm and 10:00 pm Polish time, in US stock and bond markets. The window of volatility will open with the Fed decision, where it is almost a foregone conclusion that rates will remain unchanged, but market attention will turn to the Federal Reserve bankers' dot plot and Jerome Powell's comments. Of the dovish surprises, it seems that the market may hear a bit more about the gradual reduction of the QT program and the horizon for the first cut 'mid-year'. Also, the lack of exaggerated caution in Powell's tone around the last two higher-than-forecast CPI readings from the US, Wall Street may read as dovish.
On the other hand, comments about worryingly entrenched services inflation and an emphasis on the uncertain timing of policy easing, markets may read as a hawkish signal and push expectations of Fed cuts beyond mid-year. On the other hand, the latest PCE reading was in line with expectations, and the ISM manufacturing and services data surprised downward. The overall macro situation in the U.S. seems to be weakening somewhat, and Powell's extremely hawkish tone is not particularly likely, as he may want to emphasize that the bank is confident of success in taming inflation, and that the prospect of a soft landing is still the baseline scenario; which was not changed by the latest CPI readings.
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10 AM GMT, Eurozone, construction output: 0.9% previously
2:30 PM GMT, US, crude oil inventories (EIA): -1 million forecast vs -1.5 million previous
- Gasoline inventories: -2.6 million forecast vs -5.66 million previous
- Distillate inventories: -0.5 million forecast vs. 0.88 million previously
3 PM GMT, Eurozone, preliminary consumer sentiment reading: -15 forecasts vs -15.5 previously
7 PM GMT, United States, FOMC decision: 5.5% forecast vs 5.5% previously
7:30 PM GMT, United States, press conference by Chairman Powell
9:45 PM GMT, New Zealand, GDP QoQ: expected 0.1% vs -0.3% previously (expected 0% y/y -0.6% previously)
Central bankers' speeches
- 8:45 AM GMT- ECB, Lagarde
- 9 AM GMT - ECB, Lane
- 12 AM GMT - ECB, de Cos
- 1:45 PM GMT - ECB, Schnabel
- 4:30 PM GMT - ECB, Nagel, Villeroy
- 7:30 PM GMT - Fed, Powell
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