- US CPI is the key reading during Tuesday session
- WASDE report will show the first look for the 26/27 season
- US CPI is the key reading during Tuesday session
- WASDE report will show the first look for the 26/27 season
Today's macro calendar is primarily focused on inflation, specifically the upcoming data from the United States. Market consensus anticipates a rebound in the headline reading to 3.7% y/y and core inflation to 2.7% y/y. While these levels are not yet extreme, they could mark the highest readings since 2023—or, in the event of an upside surprise, potentially the highest since 2022.
In addition to inflation, we will see the ZEW Index from Germany and the monthly WASDE report. The latter is particularly crucial for agricultural commodity investors, as it will provide the first estimates for the 2026/2027 season. Later in the evening, the API report on US crude oil inventories will be released.
Calendar (All times in BST):
- 10:00 BST – Germany: ZEW Index for May (Forecast: -20.5; Previous: -17.2)
- 13:30 BST – USA: CPI Inflation Report for April:
- Headline Reading (Forecast: 3.7% y/y; Previous: 3.3% y/y)
- Monthly Inflation (Forecast: 0.6% m/m; Previous: 0.9% m/m)
- Core Inflation (Forecast: 2.7% y/y; Previous: 2.6% y/y)
- Monthly Core Inflation (Forecast: 0.4% m/m; Previous: 0.2% m/m)
- 17:00 BST – USA: WASDE report
21:30 BST – USA: API Crude Oil Inventories Report
EURUSD will be the key market to watch during the CPI report release. We can see that the TNOTE points to the much stronger US dollar. Higher CPI reading than expected may deepen the price of the TNOTE even further which may be supportive for the greenback.
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