- Futures in Europe lose ground after a weaker Asian session and yesterday's sell-off in the US
- Investors in Europe will learn about construction PMI and Eurozone retail sales data
- Market awaits the most important data of the day, US NFP report at 1:30 PM GMT and Fed bankers speeches
After yesterday's dynamic end-of-session sell-off in the US, investors are waiting today for any dovish signal that would lift some upward pressure from the dollar and oil and improve sentiment toward risk assets. It seems that such a reading is likely to be NFP (1:30 PM GMT), if it indeed indicates an unexpected, stronger decline in employment change. However, looking at the very clear, hawkish suggestions of yesterday's statements by Kashkari and Goolsbee' even in such a scenario, it is difficult to expect a fundamental change in the narrative.
On the other hand, Mester and Barkin's comments were a bit more dovish, although Fed members seem to be favoring keeping rates unchanged in anticipation of weaker macro data readings, which could reassure the Fed that inflation has been tamed. Adding uncertainty to the situation is oil, which costs $91 today, the highest since October 2023
Fed members yesterday indicated that if incoming data suggest an inconsistent inflation picture, the Fed may abandon interest rate cuts altogether this year. Such a tone puzzled Wall Street and fueled general market uncertainty. A very strong NFP reading could possibly reinforce concerns about the US central bank's 'higher for longevity'.
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7:45 AM GMT - French industrial production: forecast of 0.4% MoM growth vs -1.1% decline previously
8:30 AM GMT - Construction PMI (Eurozone / Germany): 42.3 / 39.1 previously
10 AM GMT - Retail sales (eurozone): -0.8% YoY decline forecast vs -1% previously
- Forecast -0.4% MoM decline vs. 0.1% previously
1:30 PM GMT - Non-farm payrolls (US): 214k forecast vs 275k previously
- US unemployment rate: 3.8% vs. 3.9% previously
- Average earnings YoY 4.1% vs. 4.3% previous (0.3% m/m vs. 0.1% previous)
- Private employment change: 170k forecast vs. 224k previous
- Change in industrial employment: 3k vs -4k previous
1:30 PM GMT - Employment change (Canada): 25k forecast vs. 40.7k previous
- Hourly wages: 5% YoY growth forecast vs. 4.9% previously
- Unemployment rate: 5.9% forecast vs. 5.8% previously
- Participation rate: 62.6% forecast vs 62.5% previous
3 PM GMT - Ivey PMI (Canadaa). Previously: 53,9
Central bankers' speeches
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1:30 PM GMT - Fed Collins
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2:15 PM GMT - Fed Barkin
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4 PM GMT - Fed Logan
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5:15 PM GMT - Fed Bowman
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