The last day of this week will be one of the key days in the macroeconomic calendar — mainly due to the publication of labor market data in the USA. The NFP employment report will be crucial for financial markets, as it will shape expectations regarding further decisions by the Federal Reserve. If the data turns out to be weaker than forecasted, investors will assume a greater chance of interest rate cuts, which will weaken the dollar but simultaneously support stock indices and gold. Conversely, a stronger reading will strengthen the dollar and boost bond yields.
European publications will also attract attention — primarily German industrial orders and revisions of GDP and retail sales data in the eurozone. These data will be key for assessing the condition of the German economy and the entire eurozone, and their impact on the euro exchange rate may be noticeable.
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Equally important will be the readings from Canada concerning the labor market. They may affect the Canadian dollar (CAD) exchange rate, especially in the context of the Bank of Canada's decision on potential interest rate cuts later in the year. This is particularly important in the context of the increasingly deteriorating condition of the Canadian economy.
08:00 – United Kingdom: Core Retail Sales (m/m, July)
Forecast: +0.4% (previously +0.6%).
08:00 – Germany: Factory Orders (m/m, July)
Forecast: –1.0% (previously +1.6%).
09:00 – Switzerland: SECO Consumer Climate (August)
Forecast: –33; expected reading: –37.
11:00 – Eurozone: GDP (Q2, revision)
Forecast: +0.3% q/q.
14:30 – USA: Employment Rate (August)
Forecast: 4.3% (previously 4.2%).
14:30 – USA: Nonfarm Payrolls
Forecast: +75,000 (previously +73,000).
14:30 – USA: Average Hourly Earnings
14:30 – Canada: Employment (August)
Forecast: +20,000 jobs.
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