The new week begins with a cautious rebound following Wall Street’s worst week since April 2025. However, sentiment is divided by the scandal surrounding Nvidia. Jensen Huang admitted to having an affair with a person connected to a client accused of aiding Chinese companies subject to sanctions, and U.S. authorities are investigating a possible leak of information to Beijing. The company insists there is no reason to believe any secrets have been leaked, but technology contracts are once again under pressure. The US100 is down 0.61% (approx. 26,940 points), while the US500 is flat (+0.04%). Capital continues to flow toward the traditional economy.
In Europe, just before the cash market opens, steady gains are prevailing: ITA40 +0.68%, DE40 +0.38% (approx. 25,852 points), UK100 +0.32%, FRA40 +0.31%, EU50 +0.25%. The W20 is flat. In Asia, the semiconductor crash has been halted. Taiwan’s Taiex rose 4.9% following restrictions on short selling and the launch of a stabilization fund, while the JP225 is up 0.69%. China is performing weaker (CHN.cash -0.51%).
In the commodities market, oil is seeing the sharpest declines. OIL is down 1.47% to about $96.3, and OIL.WTI is down 0.86% to about $89.6. The market is betting on diplomacy following Trump’s remarks that a resumption of war with Iran is “highly unlikely,” and is ignoring, for now, the weekend attacks on Aramco and the Khor Mor gas field. Precious metals, however, are rising in price: GOLD +0.64% (approx. $4,095) and SILVER +0.60% (approx. $52.2). They are being supported by a weaker dollar (USDIDX -0.25%), against which EURUSD is up 0.23% to 1.1171, and GBPUSD is up 0.30%. USDJPY is down 0.19% to about 158.1 following confirmation of a record-breaking intervention by Tokyo worth about $50 billion. BITCOIN (-0.40%) remains below $74,000, its lowest level since August.
What's driving the market today:
Key data came in overnight from China. Producer price inflation PPI accelerated to 5.7% y/y (forecast: 5.3%), the highest level since June 2022. Consumer CPI, on the other hand, fell to 0.7% y/y (forecast: 0.8%), while the m/m rate was 0.0%. Rising costs coupled with weak domestic demand are putting pressure on Chinese companies’ margins. At 8:00 a.m., data from Germany was released. Imports rose by as much as 4.2% month-over-month (forecast: 0.5%), so despite strong exports (+2.0% vs. 0.5%), the trade surplus shrank to 15.6 billion EUR (forecast: 19.6 billion).
Later today, we can look forward to:
- 10:30 EU: Sentix Index (forecast: 2.1, compared with 2.7 previously).
- 10:30 GB: work efficiency (previously 0.5%).
- 12:00 CA: leading indicator (month-over-month).
- 5:30 p.m. US: Auctions of 3- and 6-month Treasury bills.
- 7:00 p.m. US: Auctions of 3-year, 10-year, and 30-year bonds. With the 10-year yield around 4.87%, demand for the bonds will be an important indicator.
Bowman (2:40 p.m.), Goolsbee (4:00 p.m.), and Barkin (6:15 p.m.) will outline the Fed’s policy today. The market is pricing in about an 80% chance of a rate hike in December. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey will speak at 6:25 p.m.
Earnings season is slowly winding down. After the market closes, Take-Two Interactive (TTWO.US) will report, and its comments will be important ahead of the November 19 release of GTA VI. Occidental Petroleum, KKR, and Constellation Energy will also report their results. In Europe, it’s worth keeping an eye on retailers affected by cyberattacks (Ahold Delhaize, Carrefour, Colruyt). The key question of the day is whether the oversold Nasdaq will manage to stage a rebound despite the Nvidia scandal, or whether investors will once again start reducing risk ahead of Tuesday’s U.S. CPI report.
Morning Wrap: Taiwan and Asia Are Halting the Chip Crash Despite the Nvidia Espionage Scandal 💡
Daily summary: Wall Street rebounds after the sell-off 🔼 US dollar strengthens on solid NFP data, oil prices fall
OIL loses after reaching $100 📉Is Iran reviewing a change to its nuclear program?
🚩 EURUSD loses 0.6%
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